FORWARD BASE B

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The Future of Alt-Right Populism?

Let’s face it: Trump is behind.  I’ve waited for the nonsense after the conventions to die down but it seems like the race has stabilized at a 5-6 point gap.  I’ve heard all the typical complaints that polls are skewed but look where that got the wishful thinkers who wanted Romney to win.  I’m inclined to believe the average of the data that’s out there.  It’s easy to project one’s views onto other people but many Americans remain bewildered and horrified by the rise of Trump.  It’s possible a majority see him as a “racist,” an accusation that is steadily fading in power, but remains the modern equivalent of being called a “commie.”
Hillary has a coalition of single/professional white women, all minorities voting as a bloc, white male professionals, and a majority of college degree holders.  The reality is that this group is big enough to win and that the 2008 and 2012 elections conclusively demonstrate that “real Amurica” can no longer carry elections alone.  There are still enough Americans who have comfortable lives but are afraid of losing what they’ve got.  So their strategy is to turtle.  Those who are invested will double down on the status quo instead of supporting an upstart.
This race is by no means over, I suspect the debates will decide this contest—but if there isn’t a big change it looks as though Trump will lose.

A personality like Trump was necessary to tear down the increasingly out-of-touch opposition party but he might not end up being the one to rebuild it.  So I’ve been putting some thought into what a successful populist coalition would look like.
The core democrat constituency is obviously minorities and white yuppies, no use trying to convert large numbers of them.  The last desperate attempt of establishment republicans to be viable in a presidential election was to reach out to “natural conservatives” in the Hispanic population but all they accomplished was to alienate their base.

The most obvious low hanging fruit to grow a populist coalition are the discontented members of the alt-left.  Trump has focused his campaign rightly on the ills of blue collar Americans but I am surprised he hasn’t done more to exploit the opportunity revealed by Bernie Sanders’ unexpected popularity.  While successful professional whites may be core democrats, there are millions of frustrated educated whites who can’t get ahead.  They are the product of the last few decades of elite overproduction.  Just mentioning college loan forgiveness and restrictions on H1B visas would be a huge draw.  They’re already unhappy with the deal they’ve gotten from society but also feel that associating themselves with a blue collar movement will destroy whatever remaining chances they had of getting that lucky break into office cubicle wonderland.  To consider defection, they need reason to believe they’ll get a better deal than they’re getting now and that’s a pretty low bar.

The next group to focus on for defection might be those we call “model minorities.”  The new populist party is an explicitly white movement but like any non-majority political faction it needs to form coalitions with other groups to achieve common goals.  Ironically when the aspect of racial identity and racial interests is out in the open, rather than concealed and hinted at with “dog whistles” it will be more accepted.   Model minorities’ interests align better with working whites than they do with Blacks and Latin Americans.  This reality doesn’t seem to have dawned on them yet, they are still reacting to culture wars era paranoia.  The facts though, have a way of catching up.  Asians, Indians, other successful ethnic groups already occupy an awkward place in the democrat coalition, reminded of their “privilege” just like whites and blocked and discouraged from taking full advantage of affirmative action policies.  They are already told they aren’t “real” minorities.  They already suffer the same problems as whites when high crime groups move into their suburbs and devalue the property.  Model minorities are the ones who own most of the small businesses in dysfunctional neighborhoods.  The Sikh family that owns the corner store and the Koreans who run the liquor store can’t indulge in the same ivory tower thinking that predominates in yuppie land.

Beyond trying to grow a populist coalition, time is in its favor.  As the system continues to stagnate more will be disaffected enough to split away from the old system.  Every year, there’s fewer people living comfortable middle class lives.   The sprawling system of universities continues to exacerbate elite overproduction with every graduating class.  Even white professionals will begin to change their minds when they can no longer just shove all their problems on those who can’t afford to live in gated communities and shop at whole foods.  Right now the upper middle classes and their masters quite cynically use minorities to promote their interests over the working and lower middle classes.  They know there’s far too few of them to win elections in a democratic system so giving the “real” minorities unlimited bread and circuses gets them the votes they need.  However, the complete rejection of Bernie Sanders by the monolithic Black vote is a sign of things to come.  For the first time, a lot of democrat whites recoiled in shock as their preferences were flatly vetoed by those they had looked down on as loyal pets.  As minorities get more powerful their handlers will find themselves less able to control them.  When they finally lose control they will be forced to reconsider their alignment.

There is of course the possibility that no constructive political solution will be arrived at.  We stand at a crossroads.  The next few years will decide whether present issues can be resolved within the system or whether conflict will simply escalate.  In the case of a Hillary presidency, the status quo could be sustainable if she, like Obama, mostly limited her antagonism of red America to “clinging to guns and religion” mockery.  But looking back on her poor judgment and reckless belligerence as secretary of state, I have a feeling she will overextend. Furthermore, even were she as benevolent as can be hoped for, the laws that ban free association for whites while allowing it for everyone else and legal disincentives for healthy family formation will continue to chip away at the legitimacy of the social contract.  If Trump wins this, there will be nearly half the country that sees him as an illegitimate autocrat.  There will be an ugly struggle for power no matter who prevails in November.

See Also:  Trump and Sanders Are Part of the Same Political Movement
See Also:  Smart Racial Realism

 

8 responses to “The Future of Alt-Right Populism?

  1. Laguna Beach Fogey August 28, 2016 at 2:55 pm

    Post-speech, the gap has narrowed. Hillary’s lead is falling. Her attack on the Alt-Right backfired.

  2. Sam J. August 29, 2016 at 1:42 am

    “…A personality like Trump was necessary to tear down the increasingly out-of-touch opposition party but he might not end up being the one to rebuild it. So I’ve been putting some thought into what a successful populist coalition would look like…”

    If Hillary wins I don’t believe any coalition will be put together for a long time. Hillary will legalize 30 or 40 million illegals and pour in refuges by the boat loads. The Republican cucks will tighten the rules so that there will be no more Trumps. Globalist trade deals will fly right through further hollowing out the country. It will be a new era for the US. US 1.0 the founding, US 2.0 civil war, US 3.0 Hillary wins. It will be another country. If she wins it won’t be hippies burning the flag it will be people like me.

    • Giovanni Dannato August 29, 2016 at 3:26 am

      There’s currently about 20% Latinos, 13% Black and at least 60% white. Even if they were reduced to 50% whites will still be larger by far than any other faction. The real problem is that only 2/3rds of whites at most are willing to get behind a single party and they suck at forming coalitions with other factions(how you get things done in a democracy). They also suck at exploiting divides between their competitors—Blacks and Mexicans aren’t exactly natural political allies! White professionals cynically vote to shit on less wealthy whites, white women vote to shit on white men. They eat their own to keep their gravy train going in the short term. As it is, economic civil war among whites is what makes the present state of affairs possible. It’s textbook divide and conquer like Americans did with the Native Americans or the British did with the Indians
      But even the most snobbish SWPLs will rethink their positions when they’re forced to pay a white man tax and are afraid of getting their throats slit over their wallets when they go outside without bodyguards.
      The fact is a few percent whites were able to run Rhodesia for decades. 5-10% whites were able to run South Africa for a few centuries. About the same proportion to this day is able to run things in Brazil. Their current president(getting impeached) is an ethnic Bulgarian!
      American whites long insulated from the reality of competition between peoples are still learning, but events will force even the most grasping sociopath careerists to clamor for basic survival. Even if they gentrify entire cities for themselves, they will still find themselves under siege by hordes of the poor and desperate in an ever-shrinking green zone.

      • Sam J. August 29, 2016 at 8:28 pm

        I don’t disagree with anything you say but the North is the problem and they’ll do anything not to be called Redneck by the Jews. I looked at the votes and there’s too many in the North to throw them out of the country. The other states are stuck with them. Will they will drag us down until it’s too late?

        I’m very negative about the whole situation. I hope you’re right but due to my financial situation and age it won’t help me any. It will be too late for me and I’ll probably have to move, which I can’t afford, to keep from being murdered if there’s a financial crash.

        I was talking to a guy in North who was berating me about my foolish fears of minorities. He said he was so superior that he would just move to a gated community, implying my inferiority. This is fine if he thinks that but I pointed out all the row houses in Baltimore, Maryland and other cities that are being consumed by the Blacks. Here’s some.

        These could be great fixer up houses. People in Europe live in houses like this for hundreds of years. It’s a vast waste. Basic search there’s 16,000 Vacant Houses in Baltimore. I read a guys blog who writes about violence and lives in the ghetto in Baltimore and I think he said that it’s more like 25,000. You might like James blog. He writes books with titles like,”When Your Food”.

        http://www.jameslafond.com/

        The Northern guy doesn’t understand. How he can’t live in areas where there are hundreds of houses that with a little work could be great for young families. He doesn’t get it. The spaces are contracting. Gated communities will be surrounded and then forced to take on section 8. You can not get the threat through to these people.

  3. Giovanni Dannato August 30, 2016 at 8:12 pm

    @Sam
    As the ability to signal one doesn’t have to care about the encroachments of other tribes becomes scarcer, the value of being able to do it convincingly increases. Anxiety over this means you’re on the front lines competing for service jobs which is low status. This is really the source of much of the sting when you call someone “racist.” You’re also calling them “white trash.”
    Living in enclaves now is status and people will do whatever it takes for status even if it means going into debt or slicing up their face to make ritual scars.

    You can’t get the whole story from areas like Baltimore and Detroit that are being allowed to fall apart. You have to look cities like Washington DC and parts of New York that are actually getting whiter from the forces of gentrification. People with status don’t care what happens in Baltimore if they can afford a flat in Adams Morgan in Washington.

    I don’t know, they may be right that they can have just a few a cities all to themselves while everything else decays. The 3rd world is full of wealthy compounds with high walls, barbed wire fences, guards and everyday life goes on for most people.
    On the other hand, you have all the people who are in with the system packed into just a few neighborhoods and everyone knows where to find them. Not exactly anti-fragile.

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