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Category Archives: Politics

Searching For the Golden Mean of Government

Direct democracy is mob rule.  It is so unviable and volatile that no polity has ever had a completely direct democracy.  At best, popular referendums are used sparingly and mostly in local government.
The Ancient Athenian democracy was a disaster and it was even limited to an elite class of citizens.

The founders of the United States took note of history and used the Roman Republic as their model instead of Athens.  
Separation of powers and the use of representatives was far more stable because it could moderate the whims of the crowd and favor the power of one faction over another.

There are those who argue that having a King or Emperor is the best and most natural government.  Monarchy after all has been the most common and stable government for thousands of years.
Monarchists have a good argument that monarchs are effective executives able to make quick decisions when it matters most.  Because their entire lives and family are invested in the state  they have a built-in incentive to care about long-term problems whereas elected representatives just care to get re-elected.
In practice, of course, history has countless examples of incompetent monarchs.  A system that depends so heavily on one person can seesaw between being very well run to a complete nightmare.  

When power is more focused, major changes in policy can occur immediately. But those changes might prove to be disastrous and even bring about the collapse of the state.  
Republican government makes sudden changes in policy difficult to safeguard against any single person making fatal decisions.  It also avoids the ancient problem of being just 1 heartbeat away from wars of succession.  
However, problems that need to be boldly addressed tend to fester when there are safety rails everywhere.

So can we find some kind of balance between autocracy and the republic?
The USA in its current form has nearly universal suffrage and slips into the disaster of mob rule.  The early US republic had limited franchise.  Moderners obsess about suffrage being limited to evil white males but the important part was land ownership requirements.  This may not be exactly what we’d want now, but it gives us a useful principle.  

The idea behind this restriction was that voters had to have skin in the game and safeguard them against people with nothing to lose simply using the state to plunder everyone else.

There was a clear idea that some people were more invested in society as shareholders than others, an idea that’s totally alien to modern concepts of democracy where every warm body has a “right” to vote. 

We also ought to go all the way back to the principles of merit from Plato’s Republic.  Like any other job, those best qualified to rule should be the rulers.  In a republic that would mean we dismiss handwringing over “rights” and worry only about what results we get from bestowing the ballot.

We’d refine the electorate like consultants brought in to trim down a company.  Did we end up fighting wars for no reason?  Were there tax breaks for the rich while peasants starved?  Who voted for these things?  Does someone have the civic knowledge, basic literacy, and intelligence to competently wield the power of the vote? Do they have skin in the game and a reason to care about where society is 100 years from now or does it make no difference to them if they plunder the treasury now?

This is of course an imperfect process. Imagine if we had simply made the top 20% most educated people the only ones with the vote in the US.  Out-of-touch SWPL total rule would have been a disaster for everyone.  So clearly a formula for who gets ballots has to be worked out very carefully.

-Those with special knowledge on an issue get a more heavily weighted vote. (The challenge is this might end up benefiting parasitic insiders.  We’ve all seen where rule by “experts” has gotten us.)
-The whole society gets divided into castes based on capabilities and neurological temperament.  The best(with skin in the game) get to vote.

The basic idea is to use a republican or other system for collective decision-making to limit the potential for a single fool to destroy an empire or for one untimely heart attack to plunge the nation into a war of succession.
Yet there are also far fewer voters making decisions.  Enough so that nothing depends on just one person but so that major decisions and changes are possible.

The Roman Republic gradually fell apart as power had to be “temporarily” granted in crisis situations where political gridlock was simply not an option.  This inevitably led to generals who were more powerful than the state.  When a collective decision making system cannot adapt in real time, it is forced to gradually dismantle itself.

So the successful system of government has to walk a tightrope.
The trick is to benefit as much as possible from the acumen of great men while preventing and blunting the depredations of the worst.
And to benefit from the “wisdom of crowds” from the best crowds rather than an indiscriminate mob.
The use of computers and statistics would play a prominent role in figuring out what works best.

Look up strategies for any online game and we see the experiences of thousands of competent people who played countless hours compiled into build orders timed down to the second, or item builds categorized by victory percentage across an entire server.  It would take more than one person’s whole lifetime to figure all that out by themselves!

Surely these kinds of tools would help a republican oligarchy figure out who has the best judgment to run a health system and who is full of bullshit.

Trump Foreign Policy: Post-Unilateralism

Coalition, or no, whether other nations were willing or not, the brand of America has been built on unilateral foreign policy.  The world’s only superpower was also the world’s policeman.
Power, however, is a tool and as with money even great amounts of it are easily squandered without clear objectives and a sensible strategy.
The collapse of the Soviet Union was seen as the ultimate legitimation of unilateral diplomacy, an eternal blank check for Wilsonian exceptional interventionism at the “end of history.”

Every president since Reagan doubled down on this nonsense until it reached a climax of absurdity under George W. Bush.  Obama finally toned it down a little bit, because he had to.  Meddling went on unabated, but with most of America’s once abundant international political capital finally frittered away there was only so much he could do.  By the end of his presidency he was a laughingstock openly mocked by the Chinese leadership, insulted by the leader of the Philippines, and regarded with thinly veiled contempt by Russia.

Trump leads a reaction to a political establishment that has been utterly discredited by its decades of relentless ineptitude and failure despite holding every possible strategic advantage.
It has been clear since Trump’s campaign he envisions a US that conducts foreign policy as a nation among nations, not as a bombastic world police that clumsily throws its weight around.

This will mean, thank goodness, far less meddling in the affairs of other nations and a restoration of balances of power.  By wielding power with a lighter hand, it will become possible to accomplish far more.

The US can begin to create a post-exceptionalist, post-unilateral world by simply withdrawing US military interference.
Having US bases while limiting the military power of the host countries has increased the burden on the US while merely infuriating neighboring powers needlessly.

If the US removes most of its troops and involvement in NATO it forces EU nations to spend far more of their wealth on defense.  If Europe insured itself against Russian aggression, Russia would possibly be more amenable to talking about its interests elsewhere…

With a stable balance of power between the EU bloc and Russia, the US could have more constructive conversations with Russia regarding its extremely long border with China.  China is the only world power with potential, besides a real United States of Europe, to be in the same league as the USA.
America and China are presently economic partners joined at the hip, but we must think towards the long game.  Even as the US-Chinese relationship exists now, why not encourage other powers to contain them, giving the US more bargaining leverage?
In light of this, the complete obsession of the USA’s establishment with the Middle East and anti-Russian sentiment is perplexing.  A major foreign policy coup of the 21st century will be to split Russia from China as Nixon once split China away from the Soviet Union.

America could also withdraw from Japan forming a new, more equal relationship and encouraging Japanese re-armament and cooperation with Taiwan to counterbalance Chinese naval ambitions.
Hopefully, a post-exceptional international order would see the US and Europe able to freely operate with the emerging great power of China hampered by its nervous neighbors.  Why meddle when we need only encourage them to do what serves themselves?  The Daoist maxim to “do without doing” will be very appropriate in coming years.

Regarding Korea, it is ironic that if the US renounced its military commitments in the South, it’s possible the Chinese would become suddenly more amenable to discussing phasing out a client state of North Korea they have no special love for, but have kept around as a buffer against a clumsily over-aggressive US.  Add some diplomatic pressure from  neighboring powers, and perhaps an understanding could be arrived at where none is possible now…

Much of the benefits of a post-unilateral foreign policy come from simply undoing the heavy-handed status quo that counter-productively plays at imperialism.  From now on we may see the US doing more with less or in other words, “under budget and ahead of schedule.”

Trump vs. The Courts

They’re making the same mistake they did during the election.  Committing too much of their forces too early instead of picking their fights and keeping their powder dry for the right time.
In two weeks we’ve already seen endless protests, riots against free speech, and now political power plays from  the judiciary.  What unplayed cards will they still have up their sleeves in two months?

They can have media outrage over everything President Trump does or says.  They can try to hold up his confirmation hearings for his cabinet just ’cause.  They can have judges declare it’s unconstitutional for him to tie his own shoelaces.  They can never “normalize” him or examine the possibility that he’s anything other than Hitler or the devil incarnate.
The thing about effective use of power though is it needs to used like a tool, with precision and in the pursuit of decisive objectives.
Using a frantic scattershot approach is bound to lose.  Try winning at chess or go behaving like that!

If the opposition had chosen key times and places to block Trump spaced out over the next couple of years, they may have succeeded in sapping his momentum and the popular support he requires to stay in power when both parties hate his guts.  This indiscriminate shitshow though will backfire.  A hundred million Americans are watching this happen with shock and the quick succession of events is keeping their attention.

If the judiciary shows it is just another political body without any sense of impartiality or fair play then it loses its legitimacy.  Even if they succeeded in stopping Trump cold from now on, no one would take them seriously anymore as keepers of the law.
This corrosion would leave them vulnerable to a new wave of demagogues that would have them begging for the good old days of a center-right moderate like Trump.
Their total inability to keep the long game in mind or even to approach issues right in front of them with a coherent strategy reminds us why they are falling from power in the first place.  Their ineptitude is great enough, if Trump doesn’t clear them out, someone else far worse for them will.

Today, there will be a hearing in the 9th circuit court over a judge’s ruling that prohibits Trump to mandate the exercise of his most basic constitutional duties.  We are about to see how far they want to escalate this right now and whether they have any basic common sense.  If this goes to the Supreme Court we are entering Dredd Scott decision territory.  It wouldn’t be the first time the courts have been openly co-opted as a political weapon and once that is done, the rule of law itself is undermined.

Update 2/9/17: They really did it.  They ruled against the ban and this escalates further…

21st Century Nationalism Is Not The Nation-State

As we witness the rise of populist-nationalist reformers all around the world, there is much confusion about what this nationalism actually means.  I get the impression that many think they are going back to the nationalism of an earlier time, but there is no resurrecting the past.
What we have called nationalism is the philosophy of the nation-state that arose in the 1860s.  Whether in Italy, Japan, or America we saw a vast expansion of state power and centralization enabled by the industrial revolution era technologies like the railroad and the telegraph.  The basic idea was that the country was divided up into departments handled by groups of bureaucrats in the capital city.  Mass public education inculcated all the nation’s children in the same values and eradicated local dialects and languages in favor of the speech of the capital province.  Germany hadn’t been united in any meaningful way for about 1000 years, Italy not since the Roman Empire. Regions had distinct cultures and often spoke tongues that were not even mutually intelligible.  All those differences had to go so humanity itself could be reduced to standardized parts in the machine.  The 20th century with radio, television and its mass mindless herd wars marked the high tide of centralization.  What people like to call “globalism” is just a worldwide version of the 19th century style nation-state.  The present nationalism is actually a reaction to what they see themselves as continuing in some way!  No wonder they are confused about their identity!  

The personal computer followed by internet has decentralized networks at a furious pace.  The 21st century is about unraveling the monoculture that has grown ever more uniform and dreary over the last 150 years.
Until modern communications, large clumsy bureaucracies always won.  Maybe 2 million men died because rubber stamps were put on the wrong forms, but the other 18 million would overwhelm the enemy.  In a world of telegraph and then radio there was no real counter to this zerg swarming strategy.
Now though, it is possible for even small, poorly equipped forces to outmaneuver clumsy centralized states indefinitely while inflicting a thousand paper cuts and letting the nation-state waste its energy throwing slow, painfully telegraphed punches at gnats until it gases out.  It’s like a claymation giant monster flailing around in vain to kill the heroes or Captain Kirk vs. the Gorn.  It’s a simple concept often called 4GW(4th generation warfare) to sound hip.  
By the early 2000s poor Arabs with home-made road bombs could outmaneuver the richest empire in history.  In the 2010s smartphones lead to the Arab Spring and Occupy followed by the Islamic State.
What we are seeing is an increase in the size of 4G organizations until we are looking at something on the scale of nation state with the flexibility of a small organization.  As it matures, this kind of system obsoletes the 19th century bureaucracy-bound nation-state.
The nationalist vs. globalist struggle we see across the developed world is the clash of established nation-states with 21st century decentralized networks.  As soon as we understand this it’s clear why the establishment is on the wrong side of history and why in spite of their overhwelming power they can only flap about in furious teary rage as their world falls apart.  There is a Tao of the universe and those who try to fight it, no matter how mighty, only exhaust themselves.
The election of Trump is only the beginning of their woes as his momentum carries over and they find themselves under siege in Italy, Austria, the Netherlands, France, and even Germany.

There is a new age upon us but it will not be a peaceful age.  While steadily dwindling wealth remained above a certain line and there was a USSR to scare people, unity went without serious challenge.  Since the year 2000 or so we’ve sunk towards the next dark age with rapidly shrinking wealth, low trust, low innovation, and stringent orthodox persecution of heretical ideas. Furthermore, in a nation-state that treats everyone like replaceable parts from cradle to grave no one feels like they really belong or really matter.  They plug into an economy to crank out production points for most of their waking time alive with no purpose in sight.  This purpose vacuum was waiting for something to fill it and modern communication brought down a Berlin Wall built from bricks of mechanistic nihilism.

It comes as no surprise then that the new organizations arising are very much like tribes.  What others call nationalism I call neo-tribalism.  As always some will benefit from change while others perish.  An age of tribes promises to be a savage one defined by groups fighting over scarce resources in a world where most niches are already over-saturated.

The main discussion between allied emerging tribes right now is what uniting principles will define the new nation-tribe.  Some believe it is about a civic polity, those who can participate at a net benefit for the whole.  Others believe that ethnicity will be the core.
I think both are right about some things but neither grasps the whole truth.  Disembodied communication allows humans to associate by natural predisposition and neurotype.  Some tribes will form coalitions of mutually beneficial types and in those coalitions there will be hierarchies of tribes.  In time, the tribal coalition becomes a caste system.

Above all, this means the end is coming for enlightenment philosophy that reduces all questions of society to the individual.  In the future, society will not be treated as a machine made of atoms, but as an organism made of cells. Societies themselves will finally be seen correctly as competing organisms in the wild rather than lifeless structures that interchangeable atoms happen to occupy.

New Balance Hysteria Shows Us Meaning Beyond Markets

The burning of New Balance shoes in reaction to the culturally charged 2016 election tells us something about human nature that secular society resolutely ignores.  Markets and productivity are not ends unto themselves. In the secular enlightenment paradigm it’s irrational to destroy a perfectly good pair of shoes, or an expensive NFL licensed Kaepernick jersey, avoid a restauarant like Chic Filet, or a store like Target.
But in real life people intuitively understand that the flow of wealth represents the lifeblood of cultures.  We do not pursue commerce just for its own sake.  Without context production and the accumulation of wealth has no meaning.  We are taught to think in terms of just getting rich and selfishness is a strong motivator, but that’s not the whole story.  Getting rich as an individual means nothing if your civilization is about to get sacked and plundered and the culture you rely on subjugated.  Only by living in splendid isolation with our own entire continent to grow into could we ever have grown so naive.  Without your culture of people who believe in the dollar, it’s worth nothing.
So we can see in the right context that the economy isn’t some entity that we serve, it exists to serve us. It’s the mechanism by which a group uses wealth to its advantage.  You may be the richest empire on earth, but if all that wealth does not grow the group’s resources and power it is worth less than nothing at all.  Impoverished Somalis have clans they know will back them up no matter what.  Atomized Americans live every day knowing they are one slip away from falling through the cracks and if anyone cares to even notice, it will be to ridicule them.  In this we see the insanity and irony of the religion of enlightenment trying to treat production and wealth itself as mathematical goody points to be tallied up on a sheet.
With the age of neo-tribalism dawning, we see the supposedly monolithic economy being divided up by tribe just like land and culture.  Wealth too is territory.  

A Season For Gloating

For everything there is a season.  Normally, we are magnanimous in victory knowing that we may be the defeated ones tomorrow.  But this time we are dealing with the vanguards of a decadent movement that spent over 50 years in power and did its absolute best to destroy us.  For the entire duration of the election, they were smugly secure in their imminent victory and spared their opponents no mockery or indignity.  They had no honor, they deserve none.  If any thought of mercy were to creep into our heads now that they are beaten, we need only think for one second about how they would have behaved if the tables were turned.  Since the beginning their strategy has been to guilt trip and play the victim while thinking with snide condescension what idiots we are for actually believing them.  But they’ve wasted their social capital now and no one believes anything they say anymore.  Their tears and tantrums are just a hilarious joke.  No mercy or safe spaces this time.  I don’t normally spend much time on social media.  No facebook and just recently started a twitter, but I’ve been after them on hashtags like #notmypresident slapping them around.  It’s mostly a waste of my time, but it’s been awhile since I’ve been able to spend hours laughing so hard that tears are about to stream down my face, while they are crying for real.  As I tweet, there’s a shit-eating grin pasted on my face.  So this is what it feels like to conquer.  What Conan said about the lamentations of the women, lol.  Now that they are broken and demoralized, the cavalry sweeps in to mop them up.

President Trump’s First Baby Steps (And the Big Picture)

Now that the election is won, there is much to do and the situation remains perilous.

Trump’s 1st and overriding priority at this moment is to have a unified party at his back. Without that, he’s a lame duck from the start.  Trump’s nightmare situation that he absolutely must avoid is establishment types going across the aisle and uniting against him.  At this moment, the GOP says they’re with him, but everyone likes to be associated with a winner.  As soon as he hits the first roadbump all their daggers come out again.  Until the jealous GOPe is gradually phased out,  Trump has to do business with them.  He only has a lead of 2 votes in the senate, so he can’t afford for more than one of them to cross over.  Fortunately he has a commanding lead in the house which should enable him to deal with a few defectors.
Trump’s only real and reliable protection is his overwhelming mandate from his base. There isn’t that much they can do about him directly while their constituents are behind him. But they can work with the democrat side of the establishment behind the scenes to gradually soften him up as a target, stall his momentum, and strike when the time is right.

The best thing Trump can do to advance his cause right now is absolutely to get Paul Ryan deposed as speaker of the house while his victory is fresh.  Ryan needs at least 218 votes to stay, so with 241 republican representatives we’ll get an early test of just how willing they are to back Trump.  Honestly the very idea that after this victory a fool like Ryan could become president if Trump and Pence are somehow both assassinated is horrifying.  The sooner he’s disarmed and slapped down, the better.  It will help Trump solidify his lead if he can make example of the ringleader of those who betrayed him, their own party’s presidential nominee, in the last month of a historic election.  That sort of treachery goes leagues beyond the bounds of forgiveness.

If Trump can get through these initial obstacles, a whole world of opportunity stretches out before him.  If he plays his hand right, he can grow his majority in the 2018 midterms and introduce a 1st wave of populist representatives who will be on his side.  From that point on, GOPe power steadily gets drowned out.
Congressional elections have proven the soft underbelly of democrat power because brown people and young people only vote for president.   If he doesn’t seriously screw up or become a do-nothing politician, Trump should be able to accomplish this.
Trouble is, it’s not as if the GOPe wall street “cuckservatives” are willing to stand idly by while they get co-opted.  Keeping them pinned down by their constituents may be the only way to keep them in line.  Trump’s influence over Breitbart and social media may help him single out the stubborn ones.  Trump can keep religious/social conservatives placated with culture war red meat even if it’s not really part of his own agenda.  So far his instincts on this have been excellent, even coming out against Roe vs. Wade in the election.  He needs the carrot of conservative justices always hanging in front of their noses.  Perhaps they can be persuaded to tolerate the growth of Trump’s power rather than trying to sabotage him if they are salivating over the justices they’ll be able to get confirmed with a stronger senate majority.

If all these steps can be accomplished, we’re looking at the 2020 election.  If Trump gets a second term, starts to max out a feasible lead in representatives and senators, the democrat party as we know it would be effectively dead.  All three branches of government would end up controlled by the republicans.  From that point on, the dominant coalition would inevitably split up on their disagreements and continue the bicameral system, though maybe they could even be looking at constitutional amendments before they part ways.  Minorities, progressives, single women, yuppies forming a defunct democrat coalition would have to join one party or the other.  Perhaps we’d no longer see all minorities voting on the same side!  Progressives and corporate yuppies could well be opposed!
But I’m thinking way, way too far ahead and indulging in fanciful speculation.

Right now huge anti-Trump protests have broken out in cities across the country.  This is excellent news!  Emphasizing the violence and chaos gives a president-elect who ran on law and order an enormous boost.  Even better, I suspect that a petulant Obama will miscalculate as usual and passive-aggressively ignore the commotion as a gesture of spite, or if he really screws up, even encourage them.  Perhaps they could even be baited into continuing until they’ve burnt up all their energy and social capital and the vast majority just wants them beaten and pepper sprayed.  It’s getting cold outside of warm/maritime climate areas of the country, but maybe they’ll come out in force again next summer with the right catalyst.
The agitation of the protesters for secession, burning American flags on veterans day, their resort to graffiti and violence, their refusal to accept the election results couldn’t be more damaging to their cause if Trump had written their script for them.  They are working overtime to discredit themselves as a viable movement in mainstream politics.  They are so delightfully foolish because the decades have made them soft and they take that mainstream status for granted.
Simultaneously, a black muslim is being considered as chair of the democrat party.  If they go through with that they are well on the way to destroying their party for good with 2020 the final nail in their coffin.  Right now though, they are reeling from the shock of the election so they may gather their senses before they do irreparable damage.  A subtle unobtrusive nudge might put them over the edge and get them to bite down on their folly and take it all in hook, line, and sinker.
I predicted months ago that progressive whites will be forced out of their own party by the minorities they thought they controlled and become a wing of the populist coalition, a process which began with Sanders being crushed beneath the monolith of the black vote and may now well continue with a takeover of the party leadership.  This would be the end of democrats as a serious party.  Lower IQ minorities have already terrifically overextended as they tend to do and if they keep overplaying their hand when they have already lost this round, they will eventually lose their say in the process.
As it is we’ll likely see voter ID laws that disproportionately shave off votes from low IQ groups.  Deportations, enforcement of eVerify, taxes on remittances, strategic welfare and public service cuts would all help sour the deal for them and thin the herd.  And if it gets bad enough, I could imagine more split votes like we see with Maine district 2 in Norcal, Southern Illinois, and  upstate New York.  From then on inconsolably disruptive minorities and rioting hipsters would be flailing in vain behind a soundproof plexiglass window while everyone else casually got on with their lives to the betterment of all.

Election 2016: The War In Heaven

Every culture has its leaders and heroes that establish the legitimacy of the social order.  In a society of millions, those at the top of the prestige pyramids are effectively Olympian or Norse Gods of myth.  The human mind is only well designed to handle about 150 relationships at a time, the Dunbar limit.  To conceptualize someone at the top of a pyramid of millions, we need to conceive of a god-like figure with super-human qualities who is the very essence of what they symbolize.  The best person of a thousand is a very unusual person.  Even the lifestyle of the richest person out of every hundred strains our imaginations to the limit.  The highest ranked among millions is as distant from us as a star is from the Earth.  Sure enough, these deities are known as “stars.”

I have pointed out that Hillary Clinton is a high Goddess in the pantheon symbolizing the values of the 60s Cultural Revolution, 3rd wave feminism, civil rights, globalism, equalism, that whole generation of royalty—the boomers.  These values are at the core of everything we are taught to believe in polite homes, at school, in college, and wherever people are paid by salary in the workplace, aka. “real jobs”.  That makes Hillary goddess of our social reality, of the water in which we swim, of the air which we breathe.  Every corporate pamphlet, ad, and webpage with the clean white background, a smug, beaming, plain white woman in her early 30s surrounded by portly brown women in the front row, the non-threatening simpering Asian man to one side.  The middle aged friendly black man with the modest paunch on the other side.  And as always, back in the back row, overlapped by everyone else is one sad looking white man with a weak chin and a watery smile—every one of these images a shrine to the Goddess.  The brochure might as well be one of those portable pocket triptychs from medieval days.

Hillary in her time of need has summoned the lesser Gods to her aid.  Athletes, TV Actors, Movie Actors, Comedians, former officials, ex-presidents, newspapers, TV channels, every person of note in our culture.  They join her in the fight as we’d expect Ares to help out Zeus against the Titans or Thor to battle alongside Odin against the trolls.  Because they are from the same pantheon, they band up without hesitation against forces that challenge the social reality from which they derive their divinity.  We can imagine that even arch-enemies Horus and Set would ally against the Greek or Norse Gods.  Their existence, world view, and vision is intertwined and if they were to be defeated they would together see their power extinguished forever.   What we are witnessing in 2016 is a great war in heaven.  God and all his angels against the usurpers and their teeming legions of demons from the rift.
Against every expectation the fight has reached the gates of the Holy Kingdom itself and laid siege to the battlements of purity.  The chanting demonic legions hold aloft torches smoldering with unholy incense as a burning battering ram, a great steel wolf’s head with flaming nostrils, crashes against the gates.  As every angel, archangel, and saint has thrown themselves into the fray, so every one of them may perish and fade from the starry heavens if they fall.  It is all at stake, tonight and tomorrow.

Some of us speak of policies, the candidates themselves, the political parties, but all of that is secondary to the war that now rages like a Boschian nightmare across the jagged dream terrain of the collective subconscious.
No matter who wins, the damage is done, they will never again rule the heavens unopposed. There has been a great schism across the entire length of the culture.
The NFL, LeBron James, Beyonce, Katy Perry, Jennifer Lopez, West Wing, the Avengers, Saturday Night Live, The Colbert Report, Jay Z, all Hollywood, the pollsters, the authors, the magazines, the newspapers…everything.  For many millions already, these cultural icons are fallen from grace, now merely the chieftains of hostile tribes screaming for war, for eradication of the Other that is us.

See Also:  The Ritual of Unity

Pic Related:

grond_breaks_through_minas_tirith

The 60s Revolutionary Order Has Fallen: Now What?

It’s the point of no return.  They can still win battles but the war is lost.

It looked like a close election according to the tracking polls but the re-opening of the investigation is the final nail.
(Update 11/7:  Comey sending yet another letter about the investigation inflamed this matter still further if that were possible.  What is going on behind the scenes?)

It would never have been re-opened in a million years if their power had not finally broken.  It falls apart from here.  Every time before when the Clintons have been in trouble, they’ve been forewarned.  We know it’s different this time because Hillary was blindsided.  She got Justine Saccoed while up in the air.

At this point, even if Hillary could claim victory it would mean little.  She would enter office with no political capital, a lame duck with no mandate from day 1 hated by the majority.  While flailing impotently and dragged down by scandal, she might get to stay in power long enough to see her party get wiped out in the 2018 midterms leaving her as the final rock in a stormy sea.  Consider that’s now pretty much the best possible scenario for them.  We’re witnessing the closing moments of an era.  We have seen one overarching mentality in American politics since Kennedy took over from Eisenhower and the cultural revolution of the 1960s.  From debauched Kennedy, there was LBJ with entitlements and race laws, Carter with his weepy idealism, Reagan who thought of nations as good and evil.  And as I’ve pointed out, pretty much every president since Reagan has been a shade of Reagan.  Nixon came closest to a return to American pragmatism, but was of course sunk by scandal which made blind idealists double down even harder ever since.  A Trump victory would make him the first post-Watergate president.

More than any other person, Hillary Clinton is the Goddess of the social order born from 60s cultural revolution.  Her sickness and downward spiral of corruption tell a bigger story through metaphor.  The great social experiment has ignobly failed and is now near death.  To the extent the revolution was a byproduct of extreme forms of enlightenment thought, there is now potential for a break in continuity that echoes back to the 18th century.
Like most idealists they accomplished the opposite of their aims.  Rather than a great leap forward into eternal progress, instead they have caused a return to the pagan, tribal dark ages, conditions where they and their wishful ideas will be swept aside with a dismissive handwave from reality.

Deluded elites will be disappointed by one cold fact — It will never go back like it was no matter what happens in a mere political election.  And it looks at this point like Trump will win anyway and accelerate the path of change.  This entire cycle I have been astonished at the desperate kicking and tantrums of every established institution against Trump.  After Hillary’s 9/11 collapse and deplorables gaffe, I prematurely predicted the election was about to wind down.  I watched in amazement from that day on as politicians, officials, the media, celebrities strained with all their might to keep their goddess aloft.  I did not predict this behavior would be so extreme because it is utterly irrational.  Many of them could have pivoted into the new order if they were smart.  The election is important but not so important that it’s worth risking everything for.  The elites have proven once and for all how foolish and stupid they are by doing just that.  Because they committed fully to battle, they have made themselves vulnerable to being bottled up together and destroyed all at once like the Romans at Cannae.  Trump now has a huge mandate backed overwhelmingly by his base to clear them all out, he has only to follow up on it and he becomes a living legend and securely installed as the new top God of society’s heaven.

So what comes next then?
Firstly, restoring a workable national balance of power will be pursued by preventing outsider tribes ever again threatening to overwhelm the electorate.  This will:
-reinforce the mandate to deport illegal immigrants in large numbers.
-stop allowing anchor baby loophole.
-more limits on legal immigration (don’t take in from compromised 3rd world areas, just let in the best and most likely to be positive contributors)
-policies that favor affordable family formation for the white working and middle classes
-policies that discourage underclass reproduction or at least reduce the policies that incentivize it.
-freedom of association for the majority tribe.
The incursion of foreign groups has finally forced disparate US whites who are odd mixes of every European ethnicity to band together as a political force.  This means there will now be a clear hierarchy of tribes with the minorities made to understand quite clearly they are here as guests never to be threats to power as condition of the new social contract, and if they don’t like it can go back to their ancestral homelands.  The alternative would have eventually been outright tribal warfare.
There may be a gradual transition out of a democracy with full adult suffrage back to a republic with limited franchise, a policy direction that could end up with sufficient support if there are minority upheavals in reaction to the establishment’s downfall.
In any case, from this point on the internal politics of the USA more closely resemble those of the Austro-Hungarian empire or Yugoslavia as each ethnicity approaches the bargaining table as separate entities with a ruling ethnic group installed as arbitrator.

Secondly, with a Trump victory, clearing out the defeated losers in the establishment will do more than make him popular it gives him excuse to replace them all with his own people.  There will be a new ruling class and they will be far more pragmatic and authoritarian than before.
The discredited present elites have been far too slow to understand how the internet and smartphones have changed the game.  From now on, there will be redditors figuring out what the lobbyists are up to and letting everyone know on twitter.  The old blatant tactics requiring buddies, employees, and interns to keep their mouths shut will not work.  The new rulers will have to be smarter in order to be successful and that’s a good thing.  The biggest revelation of this entire cycle has been the consistent and astonishing stupidity at the top.  Left looking like fools they’ve lost all the credibility needed to rule.
The Trumpian elites will be smarter about horse-trading behind the scenes and will generally be acting in the broader national interest since being smarter, they’ll understand they need to pass up short term benefits to stay in power and then pass it on to their kids.

Thirdly, we’ll necessarily see a deflation of feminist power in society.  There’s an entire lost generation of millennial/GenX women on the brink of childless spinsterhood having the Wile E Coyote moment.  As the economy declines, they generally keep comfy office jobs, but the whole society is falling apart around them and becoming less safe.  Gen Z girls coming of age are starting to understand intuitively that feminism hurts the prospects of young, pretty women to give a boost to drab career women about to hit the wall.
Feminism will decrease in power, but female power won’t, at least until neo-tribal social structures emerge and strengthen.  The USA is already a de facto polygynous society with a majority of reproductive age adults unmarried.  Many of the changes wrought by the 60s revolution are irreversible.  The old traditions took centuries or even thousands of years to firmly establish, now they are gone.  The dreamers who expect a return to the 50s status quo ante will be sadly disappointed.  As ever there is environmental change, some will adapt and some will perish.

I will end here for now.  These are some social-political currents I see playing a major role as we transition into the post 1960’s Revolution period of history.

See also:  Why Nepotism Is Necessary

After Trump, Clinton 2nd Debate: Non-Partisan Good Will Is Gone

I saw Trump absolutely destroy Hillary on October 9th airing out her myriad hypocrisies for all the world to see and dragging her through the mud.  But I am just one person.  Across the internet I see Hillary supporters all think Hillary won, Trump backers like me all think he demolished her.  I can find only scant patches of somewhat neutral ground(all of it slanted one way or the other).   Trump supporters like me focused on his dominant presence, the threat to jail her, her visibly rattled and frightened appearance, his unapologetic crushing of her pathetic Lincoln excuses.
But Hillary supporters weren’t seeing the same thing the same way at all.  They saw a creepy, sniffling, hulking, stalking orange man trying to intimidate Hillary while she was trying to make intelligent points about policy.
Someone from another planet would never believe that both parties had seen the same event!

Even with the first debate, I can remember Trump supporters readily admitting he went in unprepared and having good-natured discussion with the other side over what he could have done better.
The second debate is the moment that any sense magnanimity and shared purpose between factions is lost.  A new age of tribes comes into being.
As of October 9th, the last pretense of cooperation within the American republic has been cast aside.  There is now only war.  No one will ever admit their candidate lost at anything out of a sense of fair play, they will relentlessly push for whichever functionary pushes their interests best so they get their piece of a steady dwindling pie and the other guy gets left out in the rain.  The civic life becomes like those two soldiers in Saving Private Ryan fighting over that combat knife.
It’s easy for everyone to get along in times of plenty, but when the good times dry up, humans play the primal monkey game of musical chairs.  Every round someone gets left out and “voted off the island.”
After years of economic stagnation only kept under control by easy money with low interest rates, the established system steadily falls apart nonetheless.

With the polls lately, I no longer know what to think.  It’s a cliche for supporters of a losing candidate to suppose polls are rigged but when you see swings of nearly 10 points with the same polls within a few days, I’m inclined to stop paying much attention.  At that point it’s just noise.  If the overall trend they indicate is true, though, Trump likely loses this election after all.  But let’s be clear, at this point nearly every established institution has now burnt its political capital and sacrificed its credibility to try to get Hillary into the oval office.  It’s so far gone at this point that it’s not completely out of the question that even the pollsters have done the same.  Even with Real Clear Politics average I’ve noticed that with the exception of LA Times tracking poll, they may have ceased including some more favorable results for Trump such as a recent Rasmussen poll.  Everyone has a dog in this fight like I’ve never seen before.  I no longer know who to believe.  The most important thing right now may be whether Trump can assume full control of his party and keep the coalition together in the midst of GOPe defections.

Establishment supporters suppose their golden world will roll on blissfully as it was once they’ve won the election.  No, the dynamics in play have irrevocably changed.  From this point the divide only grows more wide and more bitter no matter who wins or loses.
Just as supporters of either side now back the party line completely to the hilt unwilling to make any concessions whatsoever, millions of Americans will cease to see the ruling order as legitimate.
There is now a huge demand to provide services for a completely separate new culture.  After political purges on social media, there’s now attempts to start a new twitter, a new wikipedia,  a new reddit.  While geographic secession is difficult in a nation where all groups overlap, cultural secession and fracture is well under way.

Discrimination Is Just

In a just world, a group that commits more crime ends up in jail more often and everyone’s ok with that.  The group that is best at engineering and enjoys it most is the majority of the engineers.  The group that is smarter makes more inventions.  The more charismatic gets better mates, the more athletic is over-represented in professional sports.
The trouble is that everyone says they like fairness until it doesn’t benefit them. The reason that the gospel of equalism has failed is that “anti-discrimination” has nothing to do with being just.  It’s really a question of which group is able to gain advantages over another.  It’s just another form of war and conquest.
If the group that commits the most street crime can make a rule against others noticing that they commit more crime, this is not just.  The rationale of course is the “good ones” are hurt by being lumped in with those that make trouble but that doesn’t change the reality that group does in fact commit more crime.  So it’s up to that group to commit less crime and individuals to find ways of disassociating themselves convincingly from the criminal elements.  They have to market themselves, just like everybody else.  In such a fair society everyone is free to make judgments and associate as they will even if you and your own don’t like how it turns out.

From this premise, it is more or less just to have different codes, like Hammurabi did, to address different segments of a population with markedly different characteristics. The underlying problem is that modern enlightenment-derived thought denies the existence of groups and acknowledges only a doctrine of the sacred individual who must invariably be treated as a solitary atom, no matter what.  If you have a group that regularly harbors terrorist suicide bombers, you must still treat them exactly the same as those who rarely harbor terrorists.  Everyone has to watch grandmas get frisked at the airport and somehow endure the overwhelming cognitive dissonance gnawing at their souls.  When a community regularly turns out these suicide bombers, they suffer no consequence because in the delusional enlightened paradigm, groups don’t exist.
A blessedly uneducated 10 year old like the one honest child in The Emperor’s New Clothes could probably figure out common sense solutions to these problems in a few minutes.  Solutions that elude thousands of the “best and brightest” decade after decade.

Even if we studiously ignore distinctions between groups, it’s still pretty easy to tailor laws for different groups, precisely because they are distinct.
One of my favorite ideas is to have a Singaporean style law against “behaving like an animal in public.”  I spent 4 years getting around on the DC metro and encountered every imaginable sort of miscreant.  Addicts shouting at random people, homeless who smelled like weeks of sleeping on top of sewer vents, assholes playing videos or games on their phone at ear piercing volume, dipshits spontaneously busting into impromptu shitty pseudo-rap ditties, shitheads incapable of having conversations with indoor voices.  To stay sane I had to either use earphones or earplugs.  Every once in awhile I’d see someone run up to the window of a departing train and start pounding on the windows to be let in while screaming.  My vision would go red and my blood pressure go through the roof.  I would have a vision in my mind of the petulant fool turning around and seeing a squad of pristinely dressed Officers of the Discipline standing behind them led by Clancy Brown the Kurgan from Shawshank.  You could see your reflection in their boots and they’d wear leather armbands with their perfectly pressed Hugo Boss uniforms.  Clancy Brown the warden would raise the ceremonial stick of punishment, a replica of thousands of others like it across the Empire and pronounce the righteous prayer of justice.  The miscreant would get just a few seconds to scream again, this time in despair before he was set upon.  And after an astonishingly short time, he’d be left there in his own blood and before the Officers left, they’d leave him with a ticket “For Behaving Like A Monkey In Public.”  If he was lucky he’d have a few weeks painful recovery.  If not, “spend the rest of his life drinking his food through a straw.”  This would be a system of divine justice.  Once such a policy was administered, infractions would become very, very seldom and the principle of deterrence would work its magic to create a polite and orderly society.
Of course, this policy, I hardly need say, without any specification whatsoever would punish 80%+ black people.  I encountered a decent slice of white college students, drunk assholes coming from nats and caps games, and self important hipster professionals talking in loud nasal feminine uptalk that met the criteria but there were fewer of them.  It would be completely just though and “blind” to the color of anyone’s skin.  Truly only content of character would count as the activists always dreamed of.  Never does it occur to anyone educated in enlightened ideas, that blind justice might punish any group disproportionately and that true justice might in fact “discriminate” by its very true and uncompromising nature.

See Also: The Masses Crave Discipline

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2016 Election: Why I Actually Care

Most of the time I have been politically apathetic.  In 2008 I voted for Obama since McCain was another neocon and showed no enthusiasm for ending the Iraq debacle while Obama made it a central plank of his campaign.  Making a bimbo cheerleader his VP pretty much disqualified him as well as his endless pablum about being a “war hero” when he got captured and humiliated instead. (Trump reminding us what a war hero really is was a great moment!)  As bad as Obama has been, I have a feeling if McCain had won, we’d still be there wasting trillions of dollars.  17th “surge” anyone?
My first big clue Obama wasn’t going to change much was when he made Hillary secretary of state.  Pretty much set the tone for everything else. He finally got out of Iraq and Afghanistan but took him almost his entire first term while he and Hillary ineptly destabilized much of the Islamic world.
Once it was clear Obama was slow poison as opposed to fast poison like the idiotic W Bush or McCain, I sat out the lame 2012 election with little intention of ever voting again.  Giant Douche vs. Turd Sandwich perfectly described it.  It was clear by the end of Obama’s 1st term he was just establishment (sort of) lite and Romney was a kleptocrat corporate robot with magic underwear.  Every time I saw Romney’s repulsive apologetic teary-eyed smile and salt and pepper leading man look, I would see in my head the scene in Pretty Woman where Julia Roberts tells Richard Gere he has a “sharp, useless look” about him.  That summed him up pretty well.

I had no intention of paying much attention to the 2016 election but as soon as Trump got traction by saying what would get most people blacklisted, he had my undivided attention.
It doesn’t even matter if he’s completely useless once he gets into office.   I’m actually perfectly OK if he just burns it all down.  The main thing is he’s busted open that PC pinata for good.  That alone makes it worth my while.  I know all too well how his working class affectations are like nails on a chalkboard for SWPLs with all their hollow holiness signalling, so of course nothing would amuse me more than to see Trump shoved down their throats as they choke and sputter with righteous indignation.
The thing is though, I’ve watched this guy in action for a year now and he seems to have outstanding instincts.  Even where he majorly screwed up attacking voters like the Khans or Curiel, he surrounded himself with people who guided him through his natural faults, learned from his mistakes, and changed his strategies accordingly.  It’s been a delight to watch him grow.
I say this after I’ve spent my whole life watching fools like W Bush drawl on incoherently about “staying the course” or Obama/Hillary making up organic granola excuses like “human rights” to make terrible foreign policy blunders.  I’ve hardly ever actually seen leaders do anything well.  Trump shows that he’s far more adaptable and can think outside the box.  So I’m eager to give him a chance and see what he’ll do.  If he turns out to be another dud, the system won’t last that much longer anyway.

I also can see where history is pointing by now.  Just like Thatcher and Reagan were in power at the same time, we see a present trend of no nonsense populist/authoritarian reformers all over the world.  Rightward movements are ascendant in Europe.  India has Modi, the Phillipines has Duterte.  Effete elites are getting replaced with alpha workaholics who eat the polished debaters for breakfast. Population pressure is increasing worldwide and the economy isn’t as good as it used to be.  As populations feel the pinch, sharp useless types are getting forced out of power and replaced with people who just get shit done.  In the past, people were pretty easily manipulated when they were poor and desperate because it was easy to limit education and control information.  The trend of populist reformers is the result of internet as the new printing press enfranchising ordinary people.  If I were looking at a raven’s matrix of colored in shapes and had to choose what shape comes next, I’d choose Trump.  He fits nicely into the emerging zeitgeist.  The future of world politics more resembles Singapore than it does Sweden.

I care about this election because everyone bloc votes against non-elite whites, especially white males.  In a democracy, this is more or less a declaration of war.  One of the tacit rules is that one has to participate in good faith as a citizen and not as factional members out to loot and plunder everyone else for short term advantage.   Thus I am forced to respond by supporting any white party that manifests.  If there is to be war then I must fight back until sufficient security is achieved to pursue other goals.  The social contract has been broken and the balance of power has been upset.  I suspect a Trump who succeeds in deporting some millions could restore a workable balance of power, preventing a second civil war.  The first civil war was also caused by a tipping point of shifting demographics within a democracy.  A group that sees its electoral power eroding every passing year starts to behave like a cornered animal.  If the ethnic group that sees itself as dominant is challenged for its place at the head of the table, bloodshed follows.
Obama’s relentless irresponsible race-baiting has made deteriorating relations between the races even worse.  From Trayvon to Kaepernick, it’s been one long disaster.  His obsession with race has just helped to fuel the obstructionist congress he despises so much.  To be a successful president, he needed to be half-white and not bring it up.   Instead he saw fit to remind everyone every day how African he is and how diverse everything should be.  I’ve heard the “bitter mulatto with daddy issues” explanation for his neuroses and it rings true.  At this point there may well not be a peaceful end to an “Obama’s third term.”

I care because it looks like it could be a conclusive end to the Reagonian period.  Every president since Reagan has done ever dumber versions of the same stuff:
-Free trade
-Open borders
-Trickle down economics
-Financial deregulation
-Anti-union, low wages
-Runaway military spending when conventional armies just sit there and it costs millions to take out one guy on a donkey.
-A paranoid focus on singling out “evil” nations.  Self-destructive foreign policy that leads to self-fulfilling prophecies.
-Ideologically motivated foreign interventions that squander money and political capital for low value or uncertain objectives.
To name some of the major culprits.

I find myself bewildered as  a tone-deaf elite continues to stick to these failed policies.  The Soviet Union fell 30 years ago!  Didn’t anyone send them the memo?  Why do all the establishment types want a war with Russia?  It doesn’t even make sense.  Why do they want to give themselves ever more advantages until it kills the golden goose and leads to a civil war or revolution when they’re already quite comfortable?  They’re incompetent buffoons unable to successfully pursue their self-interest in even the crassest most cynical sense.  That’s why the power they love so dearly is now being ripped right out of their hands despite their furious tantrums.

Until Trump showed up, it was hard for anyone to even imagine a politician with a non-Reagonian platform being taken seriously.  And now, all of a sudden, we’re out of that miserable rut with an opportunity to try something different.  Trump seems to be a moderate but he opens the way for those who will follow him.  Everyone out there with heterodox beliefs smells blood and that’s the real appeal.  Trump is making it possible for those forced to live in the shadows to come out in the open and exert power within the normal bounds of society.  A gate has been opened into the demon realm to the horror of the denizens of the light.
The established order is tired and complacent while the shadow creatures are vigorous and hungry.  Go to the comments at any large alt right/manosphere blog right now and we hear the frenzied yips and joyous howls of thousands of coyotes closing in on their quarry.
With the last escape routes being cut off tactics of desperation become ever more apparent.  The president comes out to campaign for an absent presidential candidate.  Then the president’s wife.  Then former presidents come out of the woodwork with their endorsements.  Then former department heads and cabinet members.  And today we see actors who play superheroes revealing themselves in their desperation to move the needle somehow back in their direction.  All the while black athletes are revealing they hated whitey all along even though white society has bestowed on them its greatest rewards.  It’s unraveling quickly now.  Every empty day with Hillary barely showing her face, all the other faces of the accepted order are forced to show themselves to fill that void and we see who was who all along.  It’s like the T-1000 showing all its forms while convulsing and screeching in its death throes.  As all the gods and angels in society’s heaven strain themselves, their kingdom only tumbles earthward all the faster.  Those who seemed moments before like inapproachable deities are reduced to a swarm of ants rushing to defend a dirt mound smashed underfoot.

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The Calm Before She Sinks

It’s that perfect point in time to savor, a moment frozen in crystal before the outcomes click into place.  The last sunny fall day of safe normality.  It’s the moment just as people begin to grasp the new reality.
What has been increasingly strident contempt and dismissal has finally given way to open panic and desperation.
Perhaps many thought the fall of Hillary would somehow go unnoticed but I’ve watched her polls plummet a half point per day since 9/11 and the videos have racked up millions of views.
Even going with the kindest, most official accounts, it’s lose/lose for her.  She’s already admitted she’s lied about her health claims of “overheating” and “allergies” only after being left with no avenue to evade.  Everyone knows the coverup would have been successful if not for a private citizen or two with smartphones.  If it was contagious pneumonia all along why was she out shaking hands and hugging kids?  In even the best possible case for her, ignoring everything else, she’s still a compulsive liar who has no qualms about getting other people sick to further her aims.  Appearing weak at the memorial of a time Americans craved strong leadership, the abject humiliation of being dragged around by mere peasant guards like a sack of potatoes, remains devastating.
That’s before we even consider anything else.  Let’s for a moment still put aside all the theories of her long term maladies and simplify this.  The fact is she spent all of August with low key campaign events, her only rallies being tightly controlled and scripted with small audiences.
Once her lead started to melt with her near absence of campaigning it became less and less plausible she was just letting the clock run out.
Tellingly, she only surfaced into sight for major holidays and memorials when she absolutely had to and still struggled with the best medicine in the world to prop her up.  Even the bare minimum was too much.  She was like a whale followed by a whaling vessel getting speared every time she came up for breath, each harpoon with an airbladder tied to it to make staying submerged progressively more difficult.
Keeping this as simple as possible, I went to the website for each candidate to look at their scheduled events.  Trump of course, is doing 3 events in 3 states per day.
Hillary had 1 more rally in North Carolina with only luncheons and other small events as far as I could tell for the rest of her campaign.  Even with these, Hillary appeared to be doing less than 1 event per day while her VP, her campaign manager, and even her daughter are doing 90% of the actual campaigning.  It now appears even Obama, a sitting president, is campaigning for Hillary, a presidential candidate, instead of doing his job.  Now this is what desperation looks like.
9/15/2016 in Greensboro, NC was Hillary’s final test, her absolute last chance.  The obvious thing she needed to do was give an hours-long speech worthy of Fidel Castro in front of a real audience.  Nope.  Another scripted lifeless “event” in a small auditorium that barely lasted 20 minutes.  That she did not do the obvious thing leads to the inescapable conclusion that she cannot.  The reason does not even matter.  As of this writing there’s still about 9 days until the 1st debate.  9 endless days of a ship adrift getting pounded with relentless broadsides.  Today is the day of parity with both coalitions looking each other right in the eyes before one passes the other up forever and we see just who is on the wrong side of history.  As of this moment, if we add CO, IA, NE, NC, NV, OH, FL to Trump’s electoral map based newly favorable polling, he’s already won.  If any of MI, VA, PA, WI, NH, OR flip before election day it starts to move into landslide territory.
By the first debate, if it even happens at this point, Trump will probably already be ahead
(Update 9/25: Appears I was wrong about this part, 2 NBC Polls and McClatchy have gangraped the numbers to 2.5 in Hillary’s favor although state polls continue to drift Trumpwards.  Also the POTUS, FLOTUS, former politicians and former cabinet members, lots of celebrities have started actively campaigning for absentee Hillary which seems to have genuinely helped a bit.  However, I was stunned to see this kind of immense political capital squandered in a single flash in the pan.  Celebs like Kardashian are already learning from their mistakes and shifting to a more neutral stance.  Damn, they are burning through their reserves over a month too early!)and the delicious panic, tears, and despairing wails at a climax.  The inability to campaign alone would have sunk Hillary by election day.  A politician who can’t campaign is like a musician without fingers.  Her “basket of deplorables” disaster, plus the 9/11 collapse are just bonus points.  I have written plenty on human nature on this blog and one of the constants is that people despise weakness.  It’s an instinctual directive that comes eons before mere party loyalties and let’s face it, most people just go to their day job not caring about politics and end up voting for the stronger force, whatever it may be.

In my head I get images of winning a war of attrition in Civilization 4.  The enemy’s armies cluster in their cities watching helplessly as their roads, mines, and cottages get leveled back into the stone age and my coffers fill with plunder, each turn sealing their fate more tightly than the last.  Brahm’s 1st Hungarian dance from the game’s soundtrack plays as the death spiral winds down, and another road gets demolished with a crisp slapping sound, their last trade route cut off.
I’ve spent happy hours on twitter, politico, huffington post, r/political discussion, r/politics savoring their screams like Lord Yabu from Sho-Gun.  Actually, their jedi backflips of rationalization and denial might be even better. “But FDR hid an illness too!”  “But HW Bush threw up!” “But Romney in 2012!”  The very best treat was the comments on New York Times opinion pieces.  Lots of snobby upper middle class douchebags who have enough smarts and education to understand the social order they knew is collapsing and what it means for them.  As much as I like tantrums fueled by pure emotion, it’s more delicious still to witness the paroxysms of those who lucidly perceive impending apocalypse.

As for Hillary, the situation remains indescribably poetic.  She is at the end of her life watching her world begin to fall apart all around her.  The beautiful irony is that most of it was her own making.  At this very moment, Europe is slipping away to the right largely because of the human waves sent over by her disastrous bungling in the Middle East and North Africa.  Her selfishness in running while sick is about to destroy her party’s credibility with everything it’s worked for soon to be dismantled by her rival.  In the end, she’s been the best friend ever to radicals who would have passed their days skulking in the shadows if not for her.  Images from great revenge stories pop into my head.  I think of Titus Andronicus—truly in the end, she’s being fed her own children baked into a pie.  I think of the Punisher movie with evil Travolta told “Made you kill your wife.  Made you kill your best friend” before he’s dragged behind a car through a lot full of exploding cars.
One final set of images:   Back in the primary I always envisioned Trump’s rivals having this moment, especially Jeb.  In underwater movies, it’s the cracks that appear in the window before the cockpit implodes from water pressure(The Abyss provides a great example).  In space operas, it’s the sparks and shit that fly around, giving the pilot a warning they’re about to blow up.  The character gets those last couple of seconds to have a horrific realization and flail around impotently—that’s Hillary and her supporters at this moment.

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It’s Over: The Fall of Hillary Clinton

When the black swans come, they come in flocks.  Less than 2 weeks ago,  I wrote about Trump being behind but figured he would steadily close the gap with the race decided by the debates.  This is pretty much what was happening…
Then came labor day: 5 minutes of uncontrollable coughing that prevented her from even getting through a 20 minute speech followed by more fits later that day.  It was the same strange-sounding heaving-hacking she’d had since January!  This was it, I was finally completely convinced that something was seriously wrong with her.  She had weeks to rest and still couldn’t get through a single small campaign event.  It had been plausible that she was trying to ride out the clock for an easy win, but with just 2 months left and no longer with a large lead there was no reasonable explanation for a presidential candidate not to be constantly campaigning.
From what I read the candidates’ forum seemed to go off without too much trouble so I figured they’d be able to get her through until the debates.   Then in less than 24 hours everything completely blows up.
First her idiotic and bizarre comments about a “basket of deplorables.”  This alone was immediately hailed as her 47% moment and could easily have cost her the election on its own.  Not attacking the voters is politics 101.  Trump screwed up bad enough when he picked fights with a few voters, she had to go after millions, no doubt causing many of them to wonder if they’d have bullseyes painted on them if she won.  Everything down to her awkward word choice and the goofy imagery it conjured up made it a perfect disaster for her.
Then to my amazement it slipped irretrievably out of control the very next morning.  The moment I saw the first rumor that she had passed out in public on 9/11 at ground zero I thought “If this is true and on camera, it’s over.”  It was even more than true.  She doesn’t just pass out.  After being propped up like a corpse against a concrete pillar and held up by an aide she has a violent seizure that nearly faceplants her on the ground despite 3-4 people trying to catch her.  And then they fling her in the back of a car by her upper arms like a sack of potatoes as if she were an inmate or a mental patient.  You can’t unsee it, Hillary’s career is finished.  Her appearance of having to be propped up like a marionette  by a ventriloquist cruelly parodies the view many already have of her as a corporate puppet.  Once seen to be a mental and physical invalid tossed around by handlers like a piece of baggage there’s no way she gets to be a world leader.   The time, place, and circumstances are so poetic and contrived that if a novelist had written it I’d have scoffed.  Watching the video you can even hear a wail of despair and impotent fury as the all powerful Hillary gets tossed in the back seat by her stoic guards and hauled away to ignominy and disgrace.
(Update 10/12/16  Wow, it appears I completely overestimated the impact of this event.  It just rubs in that the age of bi-partisanship civic cooperation is over.  Even if she was a corpse it might not even move the needle that much.  No one seems that concerned her health issues could well give them a president Tim Kaine instead or make her a mere figurehead puppet ruling only in name.  She continues to do very little campaigning, I never dreamed of anything like it in an election for president of the USA!)

It’s now becoming clear she knows she’s been ill for a very long time.  There’s no fault in being ill in itself but the world must finally see that she was willing to risk the nation(and every other nation), risk destroying her own party, blatantly disregard her family’s needs(she is a mother and grandmother), and waste hundreds of millions of dollars of her donors’ money to get her hands on more power.  She was willing to endanger everyone by lying about her health while literally dying to pursue even more greed.  This confirms and exposes once and for all that she really is a raging sociopath devoid of remorse or care.  It’s completely indefensible—I can only hope she once had some strength of character that her senility has since undermined.  I’ve been surfing lots of different websites and even on the Huffington Post and r/politics they are forced to admit there’s a huge problem and that this may be over.   When even they’re concerned you know it’s for real.  Still lots of denialists mouthing excuses but one by one, they are facing the truth.
It only remains to be seen if the likes of a Tim Kaine, Joe Biden, or maybe even a post-sellout Bernie Sanders could even begin to run a campaign with hardly any time left.  Actually, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if one of them, despite the stringent constraints they’d face could do a better job than she did, but chances are the ensuing chaos makes this an easy win for Trump.  I expect Hillary will remain holed up in her New York State mansion and a few friendly zones most of the time.  After this, I can’t imagine Chelsea would even let her continue to go far if she has any say.  She will be a candidate in name only for some days I suspect until the democratic party somehow forces her to resign or finds a way to circumvent her.  Or at least that’s what they should do if they have any sense.  With the debates coming soon, the longer they wait, the worse it gets for them.  There was already a scandal over the DNC rigging the primaries and now we can reason some of them must have known Hillary was struggling.  Taken together, these discoveries could end up completely discrediting the party leadership.
Today was also a disaster for the mainstream media.  For hours, networks like CNN and the New York Times contorted any way they could to downplay or ignore the collapse.  When the video went viral and foreign journals gleefully picked up the story they could no longer ignore it.  They finally posted the video but wrote articles that downplayed the content as much as they could in a pathetic attempt at damage control.  Of course, comments were not allowed.  After this clumsily attempted cover-up, they slide a bit further towards irrelevance.  When even casual bloggers, people with their smartphones, and foreign news sources can scoop them and give a less slanted account of events, why does anyone still care?
The establishment as we knew it will never recover from this.  They seemed  immovable and all-powerful, the thought police who could blacklist and ostracize us for disagreeing with them.  Their ‘inevitable’ candidate was their ultimate idol and goddess across decades finally come forth to fulfill their entire kingdom on earth.   Now it’s the Wizard of Oz in real life.  Behind the curtain, there was only a sick and frail old woman.

See also: Comments Make Top-Down Journalism Obsolete

Why Nepotism Is Necessary

You can only have an open and fair society when most people are willing to be fair.  If you keep playing nice once too many people are breaking the rules you just become everyone’s doormat.
Right now, the country is flying into a fit of hysteria about how non-rich white men are starting to advocate for themselves as a group.  What did they expect?  Virtually every other group and identity we can brainstorm already has its own movement aggressively lobbying for money from the treasury and legal privileges.  Once you have a tragedy of the commons underway and you can’t hope to stop it, the only choice that makes sense is to try to grab as much as you can before it’s all gone.  When you find yourself caught in an identity arms race, factional nepotism is the only reaction that makes sense, keeps you fed and a roof over your head.

I don’t especially care about white people.  I don’t like people that much.  But once I was an adult with bills to pay I rapidly discovered that no one I meet cares if I care.  Everyone who sees me immediately notices I’m a European male and this affects my role in society whether I like it or not.  Over a decade ago I was desperate for work recently out of college with a useless degree and living on a friend’s couch.   I once ran 4 1/2 miles from the sterile industrial park where he lived to a Waukegan temp agency and got myself a job at a frozen pizza factory, or so I thought.  I soon learned that the client took one look at my North Euro surname and immediately told the temp agent to find someone else.   I spoke passable Spanish but it’s not as if the client would have cared.  It was a question of identity.
I took an English teaching job in Korea hoping to travel while actually using my useless degree.  Another experience that changed my worldview forever.  I learned you really don’t know anything about a country until you work a job there and you learn people have the same old problems everywhere.  I’ve done a decent amount of traveling and roll my eyes every time someone blogs about the next “undiscovered” Eastern European  paradise.
Northeast Asians are some of the most cohesive peoples on earth.  Very tellingly, they all have a word for foreigner that just means “outside person.”  You know when you’re there you’ll never be one of them(forget that Dances With Wolves/Avatar/Last Samurai porn), but you also start to realize that while their media seems to idolize Europeans other races are in practice a curiosity to them.  I came to realize they regarded me the way I might regard a talking dog or a chimpanzee.  They may send their little girls to get eyelid surgery, but they know who they are.  It came together for me why the Japanese, a people known for their restraint and discipline are some of the worst to get conquered by.   Their culture has no room for the luxury of outside empathy—they are fiercely competitive among themselves as it is—the initial politeness naive whites rave about is a superficial mask.
I came home from Korea with more hard lessons under my belt but also with admiration for their unity and sense of shared purpose, qualities which I found totally lacking in the states.
Finally, I had the experience of working jobs in black neighborhoods.  Again, the importance of identity reigned supreme.  I got continuously screwed over in my first such job until I quit.  It was a catch 22, because I wasn’t one of them, I couldn’t be lazy like them but if I worked hard, as I did, that just inflamed their collective inferiority complex.  The next job I had, I learned to walk the tightrope and was able to stay on as long as I needed to without much trouble.  But I learned to expect that when you aren’t part of the dominant tribe, you’ll always be on the sidelines watching the worst among them still get promoted over you.  When your group isn’t in control, you get to “eat in the kitchen” if you get to eat at all.  That’s reality.
I’ve gotten a bit better at adjusting my spoken word choice over the years, but even when I worked for a small business run by a prole white family, they could get a whiff that I was educated and that was cause enough for them to hate me no matter how hard I worked.
I was told as a kid that hard work is what matters, but in my entire life, I’ve yet to meet one person that cares.  Identity comes first and people who get identified(whether they like it or not) under the same identity have to work together to maximize their access to money, space, and mates.  The price for failing to cooperate is getting wiped out by competitors who can work together to secure their interests.

When white people help each other as other groups routinely do they are denounced as “racists.”  The problem with this is that in real life every living human is racist, classist, ageist, everythingist.  People always have and always will make judgments about others based on identity.  They then help the people they think will help them and hinder the people they think will hinder them.  There’s nothing magical about humans, we’re just animals in the wild albeit in hives, just trying survive and procreate.  As a social species group dynamics is a critical element of our survival strategy.  To try to separate humans from identity is to ask them not to be human at all.  This is why secularism creates soulless, dehumanizing societies.
I grew up as what I call a ‘first generation.’  There was no meaningful culture or traditions to identify with.  When I was a young man I was never shown adult survival skills nor was there any tribal initiation.  I just was without any explanation and it was up to me to fill the void.
Many people in this part of the internet like to wax poetic about “Western culture.”  I must admit that I know nothing of it.  It’s not a heritage that means anything to me.
As an adult I’ve learned there’s a meaning that can be ascribed to my Irish, Ulster Scot, Anglo, and Norman French Huguenot blood but I don’t mistake that for an identity.  It’s not as if I can pretend I’m a part of any those cultures, I’m just what I am and live by my own barbarian values.  Nevertheless, I’ve learned when, where, and with whom I have to cooperate with in order to survive.  It should be telling when even someone as apathetic as I am just says “fuck it” and takes an interest in zero sum skin color politics.  I know from experience if Mexicans, Blacks, or traditional Asians run the show there’s no guarantee I get to eat and being one of a conquered people, sure as hell not getting laid.

See Also: The Three Keys To Anglo Success
See Also: Smart Racial Realism

The Future of Alt-Right Populism?

Let’s face it: Trump is behind.  I’ve waited for the nonsense after the conventions to die down but it seems like the race has stabilized at a 5-6 point gap.  I’ve heard all the typical complaints that polls are skewed but look where that got the wishful thinkers who wanted Romney to win.  I’m inclined to believe the average of the data that’s out there.  It’s easy to project one’s views onto other people but many Americans remain bewildered and horrified by the rise of Trump.  It’s possible a majority see him as a “racist,” an accusation that is steadily fading in power, but remains the modern equivalent of being called a “commie.”
Hillary has a coalition of single/professional white women, all minorities voting as a bloc, white male professionals, and a majority of college degree holders.  The reality is that this group is big enough to win and that the 2008 and 2012 elections conclusively demonstrate that “real Amurica” can no longer carry elections alone.  There are still enough Americans who have comfortable lives but are afraid of losing what they’ve got.  So their strategy is to turtle.  Those who are invested will double down on the status quo instead of supporting an upstart.
This race is by no means over, I suspect the debates will decide this contest—but if there isn’t a big change it looks as though Trump will lose.

A personality like Trump was necessary to tear down the increasingly out-of-touch opposition party but he might not end up being the one to rebuild it.  So I’ve been putting some thought into what a successful populist coalition would look like.
The core democrat constituency is obviously minorities and white yuppies, no use trying to convert large numbers of them.  The last desperate attempt of establishment republicans to be viable in a presidential election was to reach out to “natural conservatives” in the Hispanic population but all they accomplished was to alienate their base.

The most obvious low hanging fruit to grow a populist coalition are the discontented members of the alt-left.  Trump has focused his campaign rightly on the ills of blue collar Americans but I am surprised he hasn’t done more to exploit the opportunity revealed by Bernie Sanders’ unexpected popularity.  While successful professional whites may be core democrats, there are millions of frustrated educated whites who can’t get ahead.  They are the product of the last few decades of elite overproduction.  Just mentioning college loan forgiveness and restrictions on H1B visas would be a huge draw.  They’re already unhappy with the deal they’ve gotten from society but also feel that associating themselves with a blue collar movement will destroy whatever remaining chances they had of getting that lucky break into office cubicle wonderland.  To consider defection, they need reason to believe they’ll get a better deal than they’re getting now and that’s a pretty low bar.

The next group to focus on for defection might be those we call “model minorities.”  The new populist party is an explicitly white movement but like any non-majority political faction it needs to form coalitions with other groups to achieve common goals.  Ironically when the aspect of racial identity and racial interests is out in the open, rather than concealed and hinted at with “dog whistles” it will be more accepted.   Model minorities’ interests align better with working whites than they do with Blacks and Latin Americans.  This reality doesn’t seem to have dawned on them yet, they are still reacting to culture wars era paranoia.  The facts though, have a way of catching up.  Asians, Indians, other successful ethnic groups already occupy an awkward place in the democrat coalition, reminded of their “privilege” just like whites and blocked and discouraged from taking full advantage of affirmative action policies.  They are already told they aren’t “real” minorities.  They already suffer the same problems as whites when high crime groups move into their suburbs and devalue the property.  Model minorities are the ones who own most of the small businesses in dysfunctional neighborhoods.  The Sikh family that owns the corner store and the Koreans who run the liquor store can’t indulge in the same ivory tower thinking that predominates in yuppie land.

Beyond trying to grow a populist coalition, time is in its favor.  As the system continues to stagnate more will be disaffected enough to split away from the old system.  Every year, there’s fewer people living comfortable middle class lives.   The sprawling system of universities continues to exacerbate elite overproduction with every graduating class.  Even white professionals will begin to change their minds when they can no longer just shove all their problems on those who can’t afford to live in gated communities and shop at whole foods.  Right now the upper middle classes and their masters quite cynically use minorities to promote their interests over the working and lower middle classes.  They know there’s far too few of them to win elections in a democratic system so giving the “real” minorities unlimited bread and circuses gets them the votes they need.  However, the complete rejection of Bernie Sanders by the monolithic Black vote is a sign of things to come.  For the first time, a lot of democrat whites recoiled in shock as their preferences were flatly vetoed by those they had looked down on as loyal pets.  As minorities get more powerful their handlers will find themselves less able to control them.  When they finally lose control they will be forced to reconsider their alignment.

There is of course the possibility that no constructive political solution will be arrived at.  We stand at a crossroads.  The next few years will decide whether present issues can be resolved within the system or whether conflict will simply escalate.  In the case of a Hillary presidency, the status quo could be sustainable if she, like Obama, mostly limited her antagonism of red America to “clinging to guns and religion” mockery.  But looking back on her poor judgment and reckless belligerence as secretary of state, I have a feeling she will overextend. Furthermore, even were she as benevolent as can be hoped for, the laws that ban free association for whites while allowing it for everyone else and legal disincentives for healthy family formation will continue to chip away at the legitimacy of the social contract.  If Trump wins this, there will be nearly half the country that sees him as an illegitimate autocrat.  There will be an ugly struggle for power no matter who prevails in November.

See Also:  Trump and Sanders Are Part of the Same Political Movement
See Also:  Smart Racial Realism

 

Hillary’s Alt-Right Speech Is A Major Breakthrough

I mentioned in my last post that in less than a decade internet dissenters who would have been considered on a level with child molesters have gained influence in national politics.  Just a few days after this post Hillary Clinton to my complete astonishment and delight directly devoted an entire speech to the “alt-right.”  I would have thought this some /pol/ish wet dream if it hadn’t actually happened.
This speech is one of the biggest triumphs ever for internet dissidents.  Hillary has unwittingly ushered in a new age where anti-orthodox internet culture is openly acknowledged as real opposition to the establishment when but a few short years ago it was no more than the whispers of a ghost within the mainstream.  The term “alt-right” itself is only directly adopted by a narrow slice but a huge spectrum of internet personalities holding underground opinions have been suddenly given official recognition by one of the most famous and powerful people on earth.  Hillary is a living symbol of the orthodoxy, representing at once the apotheosis of 60s wishful equalism and the disastrous economics and blindly ideological foreign policy that’s held sway ever since Reagan.  In the social cosmology, she lives in the top rank of the heavens as a goddess so any being she sees fit to address must in the public eye be at least a minor god in its own right.   As someone who has spent decades in the business of social perceptions she should know better!
The speech itself was highly effective.  It was well-tailored to its target demographics of white women and establishment republicans while reassuring her base.  Bringing the alt-right into play may have been an effective rhetorical device but for a possible short term gain in one election, she opened a portal into a “dark” dimension.  She and others like her will come to regret it.

It is truly remarkable in that a prominent politician in a national election would address something that’s not a movement or even a political party—just a vast milling about of unsatisfied souls.
This sort of loose structure is not only proving successful in modern warfare but increasingly so in politics and culture.  I first wondered at this phenomenon in 2011 as the Arab Spring swept the world and almost simultaneously riots and protests rose across the globe.  I was especially intrigued by Occupy Wall Street.  I noticed that OWS marked a transition from 60s-style activism headed by traditional hierarchies and concrete agendas to decentralized movements of dissenters swimming in schools to enjoy safety in numbers but often cooperating little more than that:

For a few hundred years now, elites have had their own version of Anonymous that has helped them to accomplish their goals. It’s called a corporation.
Shareholders come together to in order to mitigate risk and allow them do things that would ordinarily be too risky. By acting collectively, they can do away with individual accountability.
These elites failed to understand what would happen if technology sufficiently improved the ability of the peasantry to communicate and coordinate their actions.
The result is effectively a counter-corporation.

In just a couple months most of this agitation had fizzled out.  I had thought at the time it would go further and looked at where I went wrong in my understanding of the situation.  I thought about demographics and realized that the older generations, especially boomers were still too prominent to be seriously challenged.  In 2011 there were still just too many adults who read newspapers instead of surfing the internet.  But at the time, the first of them were hitting retirement age and I realized by 2015 there would be a generation coming of age that couldn’t remember the 90s, had only ever known corruption and catastrophe, and had access to high speed internet their whole lives.  For them, I realized, a functional America would be something from a history book or an 80s movie.  I made a guess that around this period the time would finally be ripe for dissident ideologies to begin gaining a serious hold.  My guess didn’t require this new generation to be especially radical as a whole, but only that it would have no attachment to the old order and thereby bring the potential for real change.
Things have begun to change right on schedule, though ironically because even a large cohort of boomers has become disenfranchised enough to turn against the Old Regime.  Some of the same elders who were screaming at millenials to “occupy a job” are themselves mourning the lack of good jobs.  Also, the smartphones and social media that made the unrest of 2011 possible have greatly matured and become an established part of the culture.  Presently, with defectors peeling off from the older generations, millennials as disaffected and uninvested as ever, with a new generation hitting adulthood who’ve never known the old prosperity, there’s finally enough mass built up to challenge the established order on a larger scale.  The emergence of Trump and Sanders in 2015 was like the busting of a dam and by giving a speech on the Alt-Right, Hillary has given dissident internet-dwellers more direct recognition than her opponents ever have.  I cannot help but suspect that this huge miscalculation comes from being disconnected from the culture.  She and her advisors may simply not understand what they do.

See Also:  Anonymous and Occupy:  The Emergence of Counter-Corporations (2011 archives)

Brexit Reflections

I was taken by surprise last night to learn that the brexit referendum passed.
It makes little sense to me that the UK would quit the EU when they can get what they want while still enjoying membership benefits.

If immigration is what concerns them most, land-locked countries like Hungary with much less influence have been successful in enforcing their own rules while remaining in the EU.  How much easier would it be for the island UK, a major world economy with huge clout to do the same and get away with it.  Whether it’s keeping out/deporting Pakistanis and Poles or avoiding bailing out broke Greeks, the national government can do what it needs to and the rest of Europe can react as it will.  That’s pretty much what Viktor Orban has done in Hungary.
The “bureaucrats in Brussels” so often derided as international tyrants can’t make Britain do anything it doesn’t want to, except threaten them with what they just did to themselves.

That’s what I don’t get.  If the underlying problem is British national leaders failing to act, then quitting the EU will just make things worse and not solve any of their problems.
If this goes through, England will lose Scotland and maybe have new conflict in Northern Ireland. The English will have to renegotiate trade deals across the planet with far less leverage than they had before. I don’t see how anyone, rich or poor gains from this.
This is a huge mistake especially when much smarter strategies were available.
Hopefully they have a revote or it gets hung up in parliament.

I sympathize very much with the people in the UK voting ‘leave’ since they are reacting to so many problems that are tiresomely familiar in the US. I know how it feels to compete for jobs against foreigners who depress wages and who are allowed to hire preferentially while people of my ethnicity are not. The injustice of being sold out by the elites of your own people is infuriating. But I suspect the British public is falling for a scam by scapegoating a council of paper-pushers in Brussels instead of bending their own leaders to their will. They have much in common with the movement growing around Trump and Sanders style populism in the USA, but I don’t see a pragmatic guy like Trump making stupid self-destructive trade moves that defy common sense just to spite “the globalists.”
That said, I hope this serves as a warning to the EU, especially Germany that it has to change its policies if it wants other nations to cooperate. The Germans are the dominant economic power in Europe but they have overplayed their hand nevertheless. I am hoping this will lead to the downfall of Merkel’s equalist enlightenment school of politics and to the emergence of a “Europe first” mentality.
If Germany and Brussels bureaucrats do not change their ways, they may lose the EU and once these kinds of things fall apart, they cannot easily be put back together.
If this situation spirals out of control, with other nations following Britain’s lead, we need only fast forward a few decades to see the re-emergence of wars between European powers.

On Reviving Authoritarianism

In a crowded world, a more authoritarian system becomes necessary.  Liberty and loose rules are privileges of those who have plenty of space and resources.  It comes as little surprise that America prides itself as the world champion of freedoms for the average person.  It is of course the nation that had an entire continent to grow into.  However, America’s days as a frontier society are over.  Always before, the problems that arise from society’s natural injustices could be deferred.  There was always a safety valve.
Now for the first time in about 400 years, the North American settlers have to deal with the same problems everyone else on earth has to deal with, vast masses of poor and disenfranchised with nowhere to go.
For the last few decades, American society has been in petulant denial like a toddler used to getting candy on demand. The tantrum has been especially stubborn and intense because there was a final big binge of halloween candy after WW2 with all the world’s demand to satisfy and all the other great competing economies burnt to the ground.  Now the holiday is over and life is back to normal.

I have read writings by those who call themselves neo-reactionaries, some of whom believe we should return to monarchy. I find there are many merits in their arguments.  Historically, there have been powerful rulers in most places most of the time. Republics and democracies have been few and far between and the best of them have been far shorter lived than even mediocre kingdoms. Even those representative governments that have existed have been oligarchic with most people as slaves and the voting citizenry a limited elite.
On its founding, even the American republic was intended to have suffrage limited to owners of substantial land and property.
The form that the USA eventually assumed, a large representative republic with nearly universal adult suffrage was unprecedented in history. These extraordinary freedoms were made possible by control of a large, sparsely populated, resource rich area surrounded by weak neighbors separated from everyone else by vast oceans. Crowded European states have adopted the trappings of US democracy since they’ve had nukes and/or weak neighbors but they have always by necessity had far more rules and taxes. Americans can kick, scream, and gnash their teeth all they like, but the system will continue to drift towards tighter order and stricter rules. There will be a steady push towards a new authoritarianism as serious problems fester and it becomes painfully clear that a democracy that’s indecisive by design is incapable of dealing with them. The Roman Republic in its twilight was forced to bend the rules more and more to deal with crisis situations until the old precedents became meaningless. Perhaps the facade of a republic remains for awhile, as it did in Ancient Rome, but eventually there is no need to pretend anymore.

Neo-reactionary monarchists have many good points and they understand correctly where things are headed. However, going back to monarchs as they were is impossible.  Too many people have too much information. Justifying the King’s power by divine right worked when most people were illiterate and ignorant. Mass literacy seriously damaged the power of monarchy and a host of other new information technologies finished it off. Today too many people are able to see that Frank next door might be smarter and more competent than a monarch whose every tic and nose pick is known to all. There would be no way to sustain the illusion of divinity when people know too much. An example is Emperor Hirohito of Japan, a mostly ceremonial monarch who was built up as a divinity and kept out of the public eye. When he personally announced the Japanese surrender on radio millions were astonished that he sounded just like an ordinary man. Worse, the occupying Americans had no qualms about using him for photo-ops and one picture with a 6 foot tall MacArthur towering over him became especially famous. A divine ruler was possible before mass literacy, photos, and videos because it was possible to cultivate an awe-inspiring air of mystery about him. In the modern world, only North Korea is committed to the information blackout necessary to support their own king as a divine ruler just as if the ancient kingdom of Koguryo had never ended.

There will be a return to authoritarianism, but not with the same foundations as before. Legitimacy for a successful oligarchy, will have to be secured by some form of meritocracy.
The average person must be convinced that they couldn’t step up and do a better job.
Neo-reactionaries understand correctly that post-enlightened rulers can’t coast on hype. They will have to become worthy to rule and then stay worthy. Being on top will mean being the best.
Rather than Divine Right rulers of the future must be backed by Divine Justice or else lose the mandate of heaven.

See also: Only Young Societies Are Egalitarian

Politics is Changing Because of Internet and Social Media

It has been a delicious spectacle to watch new competitors not only messily shit all over business as usual in politics, but actually take over the existing party machinery for themselves.  There’s something poetic about that since the established parties protected their mediocrity by rigging the system against competitors.  It ends with their own weaponry turned against them.
I have been typically apathetic towards politics, but it has been a particular fixation of mine to watch the consensus that has existed all my life begin to finally burn down.

There’s a lot of talk as to why this movement is finally happening now even though people have complained about “choosing the lesser evil” for decades.
It’s simple.
a) enough people are getting desperate enough.
b) more importantly, the internet is maturing as a technology and we are beginning to feel its true impact.

The internet is the new printing press. It changes society by dramatically increasing people’s access to information. The original printing press set up the right circumstances for the emergence of mass literacy. The trouble with mass literacy was that traditional monarchy, religion, and social mores were predicated on most people having very little access to information.
The change was slow but steady and sure. Over a few centuries, more abundant information made kingdoms and empires non-viable. In the age of the railroad and telegraph, nation-states began to replace the old kingdoms in earnest and WW1 settled the matter.
The emergence of radio and television provided more access to information but ended up bolstering the power of nation-state because both mediums were very easily controlled from tiny centralized sources.
The internet as a decentralized medium was always going to be a challenge to the order of nations.
It was already beginning to destabilize things as a minority of curious people browsed nerdy websites on their PCs. This was the printing press. Then “mass literacy” began to take hold with the advent of social media that involved ordinary people in online discourse. In 2008, Barack Obama soared to victory as the candidate of the internet. Around 2011-2012 we saw twitter riots in Tunisia and Egypt spread to the Western World as Occupy Wall Street. This spate of activity was startling but not enough to upend business as usual. One more development was needed. The spread of smartphones has finally sealed the deal. No longer can “soundbites” on TV and radio, or “experts” in the newspapers decisively control public opinion.
It took over 300 years for the implications of the printing press to be felt in full. The internet in 30 years is making an impact much faster since it is
a) orders of magnitude beyond previous breakthroughs—even the printing press at first just gave people access to the bible, a few classics, and public posters and pamphlets.
b) starting off with a society that already has orders of magnitude more information and wealth than was available in 15th century Europe.

Even so, we are just beginning to understand how big the implications are. I’ve already guessed that nation-states and their political systems will be replaced altogether by more cohesive “tribe-states” steadily over time just as a literate public inevitably led to empires being replaced by nation-states. Each increase in access to information has made possible finer gradations of mass political organization:
Empires – Political associations decided by force of arms.
Kingdoms – Association often decided by some precedent of cultural cohesion at least in a core region, with subjugated peoples surrounding.
Nation-states – Association decided by common language, culture, and in varying degrees, ethnicity.
Tribe-states – Affiliation by one’s natural proclivities and values within a larger population. Ordinary people with incredible logistical capabilities and access to information allows cohesive bands to avoid being subjugated by massive bureaucracy-bound states. The development of politics goes full circle from small tribes that were subjugated by empires based in the first cities.

Politics has always been about “choosing the lesser evil.”
Empires/Kingdoms – The ruler taxes people to bare subsistence, but if you don’t back him, his competitors’ armies will destroy what little you have.
Nation States – Any sort of republic leaves most people mostly unsatisfied but properly implemented can maintain a tepid status-quo.
Tribe States – Most people get the society they want; that’s what defines this type of association.

Each upgrade in access to information enables people to pursue their interests more effectively. This is why the ruling classes have always wanted the masses to remain hobbled by ignorance but once a major new advance spreads, they can only struggle to contain it until they finally cease to be relevant.

There has been a growing inability of US political factions to reach compromises as each insists on fully realizing its agenda. When representatives have tried to behave more moderately, their constituents have denounced and abandoned them.
Not only is a shrinking pie making people more urgent, fewer are satisfied with getting only a part of their demands met. The masses begin to intuitively sense that it is now viable to associate more finely to more effectively get what they want. There’s no more Soviet Union, nukes make conventional wars unlikely, and internet allows people to associate with those most like them and pursue their shared objectives.
From now on, the alignment of tribes, not of entrenched parties will be the shaping force in the politics of nations.

Trump and Sanders Are Part of the Same Political Movement

Trump and Sanders are poles of a new political strain.  Trump populism appeals to the working class.  Sanders populism offers programs that appeal to the middle and upper middle classes.  Together, these form a complete platform.  Illegal immigration reform and trade tariffs for blue collar.  Regulations on the finance industry, legal immigration reform, and college loan forgiveness for SWPLs.  I could easily see such a cohesive platform as a solid base for the new opposition—21st century populists replacing republicans as the original republicans replaced the whigs with a new, more viable coalition.

Class warfare, however, still presents a significant obstacle to forming this coaliton. The “real Americans” look down on SWPLs as effete twats. The middle class whites look down on working class whites as biblethumping trailer trash. Members of both communities signal status by disdaining the other and have competed against one another for political influence.
However, more are realizing as they feel the pinch that pro-life doesn’t put bread on the table and blank slate doesn’t pay the bills.
Working whites will be forced to work together like other ethnic groups do. The blue collar guy votes for the populist because of illegal Mexicans, the white collar guy will vote Populist because of H-1B visas. When common interests are strong enough, people start to overlook the window dressing that once seemed so important to them. That’s why “values/single issue” republicanism is dying alongside “social justice” democratism. People can no longer afford these luxury boutique issues. That’s why I see tidal forces pushing these factions together as both discover that neither can carry elections alone.
The white republican base has already discovered it no longer calls the shots. Now democrat whites are making a huge discovery as the bloc of the black vote sinks their favorite candidate in favor of a discredited party hack. They will be forced to admit they are no longer enough to carry their own party and must join a coalition that better reflects their interests.
It’s just a matter of time.
The old consensus is fading right on schedule as Boomers start to retire and die and a new generation comes of voting age that can’t even remember the 90s. All they’ve ever known is incompetence and decline. For them the America of optimism and meritocracy is something out of a history book. They won’t have time for the ideological issues that obsessed Boomers and Xers with secure careers.
The pie is shrinking and ranks will close as each group gathers to fight for the crumbs.

Rethinking the State

A product of enlightenment thought, the nation-state tried from the beginning to make people into interchangeable citizen-workers. Whether in Japan, France, China, or Italy, no matter when, the program was always the same—to force everyone to speak the dialect of the capital city, wipe out regional differences, and mandate total participation in an impersonalized money economy. It allowed humans coordinate as never before, every citizen with an identification number and papers tracked from cradle to grave, everyone pumped through the same school system to be given the same standardized knowledge and experiences. By the 19th century, homogenized mass states were behemoths able to easily crush other forms of organization. The nation-state craze led to the colonization of most of the planet and culminated in the relentless meat-grinder of senseless world wars. Then an unstoppable force began to come apart.

The one-size-fits-all philosophy of the nation state is its demise. When nationalism stripped away traditional cultures, it never really replaced them with anything of substance. By making all a country one place, all the country became no-place and everyone became no-one. After the world wars, the cognitive dissonance was finally overwhelming. What had all the death and destruction been for? The mass state could grind on like a machine for its own sake and take on a hideous inanimate life devoid of the capacity to care.
The illusion of purpose in the nation-state slipped every time 100,000 young men ended up dead over one mile of ground or a beautiful ancient city was bombed flat for an airy idea. For some decades longer nationalistic zeal was perpetuated by the antagonism between the USA and the Soviet Union. But one could not continue without the other. Without the distraction of threatening outsiders, growing internal divisions could no longer be ignored.
Now, internet and smartphones have made 19th century nationalism obsolete. This is because the advantage of factory-style nationalism is the ability to coordinate millions of people at a time, however clumsily, and overwhelm the enemy.
This is a strategy appropriate for a world where the telegraph, railroads, steamships, and mass production were recent technologies. 1860s nationalism was a way for states to take full advantage of those advances in logistics and communication to crush their competitors. One mistake from a general or bureaucrat could get a million men killed, but so long as the other 10 million made it through, they could win the war.
The problem is communications and logistics have continued to rapidly develop since those days. In an agile world nation states are like drunken giants—mighty, slow, and clumsy.
War has left archaic nation states behind. Paralyzed by the threat of nuclear war, they continue to waste their wealth on massive conventional weapons that just sit there. When they try to use them against small, agile non-state groups, they fail. It’s like trying to swat mosquitoes with missiles.
The world of commerce has left the old nations behind. Corporations have little connection to any nation and they make a profit wherever they can. They are like nomads going from one pasture to the next as they will. When one archaic nation is used up, on to the next.
Culture is leaving behind the nation state as well. With the internet, only language barriers really limit communication any longer. This inherently challenges the ability of each nation to keep a closed off herd with limited access to information. It would be hard for us to imagine WW1 with smart phones. Everyone’s Mom and Dad would see the piles of dead on facebook and everyone would quickly realize the whole disaster had been caused by the machinations of a few effete nobles. With modern communications borders on a map are no longer the main way people determine affiliation. People are still limited by geography, but within their range, they naturally group with others who are like them and share their interests. This is the re-emergence of tribal identity within nations. In United States, politics become increasingly divisive as each faction in a diverse population begins to become more conscious of itself as a separate entity with its own interests diametrically opposed to those of other factions. Elections are thus becoming zero sum competitions to see which groups can screw over the others.

The nation-state became dominant even though it was less efficient and natural to humans than tribal groups because it could operate on a much larger scale. With mass communications, tribal groups can now also operate on a massive scale, neutralizing the advantage of having a monolithic nation.
I have pointed out there will be a state even if it’s just the local gang running things. The difference is there will be tribe-states instead of nation-states. This will mean the rules that could once only be applied to small groups will be applied to large groups.
In my latest articles discussing the ethics of economies, I am applying the rules of small societies to large ones, anticipating what the tribe-state might look like. The enlightenment thought that ultimately devolved into relativism and nihilism in government, commerce, and culture will be abolished. Every action by everyone will be understood to have a purpose in accomplishing a common goal.
It won’t be an order of equality, the most valuable will be rewarded best, though in proportion to what they offer. There will likely be informal castes where different types of people are encouraged to stick to what they’re best at. And I doubt it will be a peaceful time. The world is overpopulated and people are now scrambling to join whatever group they think will help them grab more scarce resources. History doesn’t take breaks and humanity is about to begin another big transition. There could be a dark age for awhile, but it will lead into the next age.

The Obsolescence of the Nation State and ISIS

I found an insightful essay by an Israeli writer, Uri Avnery.  The trends of centralization until the World Wars and decentralization ever since has been a favorite topic of mine.
Excerpts:

“By the end of the 17th century, existing states could no longer cope with new demands. Small states were doomed. The economy demanded a safe domestic market large enough for the development of modern industries. New mass armies needed a base strong enough to provide soldiers and pay for modern arms.”

As I like to say: The main source of national cohesion is the fear of other nations.

“If I am not mistaken, it was Gustave Le Bon, the French psychologist, who asserted a hundred years ago that every new idea is already obsolete by the time it is adopted by the masses.

The process works like this: somebody conceives the idea. It takes a generation for it to become accepted by the intellectuals. It takes another generation for the intellectuals to teach the masses. By the time it attains power, the circumstances that gave it birth have already changed, and a new idea is required.”

“THE OBSOLESCENCE of the nation-state has given birth to a paradoxical by-product: the breakup of the state into smaller and smaller units.
While the world trend towards larger and larger political and economic units gathers strength, nation-states fall apart. All over the world, small peoples are demanding independence.”

“NATIONALISM WAS a European idea.
It never struck deep roots in the arid fields of the Arab world. Even in the heyday of Arab nationalism, it was never quite clear whether a Damascene, for example, considered himself first a Syrian or a Muslim, whether a Beiruti considered himself first a Maronite-Christian or a Lebanese, or whether a Cairene was first an Egyptian, an Arab or a Muslim.”

“The modern Arab nations were invented by European colonialists…THESE imperialist manipulations ran counter to Muslim history and tradition…THE HUGE attraction of the movement now called “Islamic State” is that it proposes a simple idea: do away with all these crazy borders drawn up by Western imperialists for their own purposes…With one swipe it clears the table of the nation-state and its derivatives. It carries a clear, simple idea, easily understood by Muslims everywhere.”

“THE WESTERN response is almost comically inadequate.  People like Barack Obama and John Kerry, and their equivalents all over Europe, are quite unable to understand what it is all about…They are facing a new phenomenon.”

The Obsolescence of the Nation State, Uri Avnery

Ottoman Empire before its non-Anatolian provinces were split up after WW1 into modern nations.

Ottoman Empire before its non-Anatolian provinces were split up after WW1 into modern nations.

Political Democracy is Just One Type of Democracy

We’ve concluded that the state cannot be changed just by shuffling around governments, since the quality of rulership is decided by the nature of the population.
Russians, for instance have always had autocratic, brutal, corrupt governments no matter if it’s a monarchy, communist dictatorship, or a democracy.  The English on the other hand had strong councils of representatives whether there was a monarch, a theocratic dictator, constitutional monarch, or a democracy.  The French defaulted to an order of centralized semi-autocracy, never quite leaving behind the authoritarian ways of their old monarchy, whether under Robespierre, Napoleon, Napoleon III, or DeGaulle.  How important then is the label?

Since government merely reflects the nature of its people, it becomes clear if we want to change a state, first we have to produce a change in its people.
But it’s impossible to produce any rapid change in the nature of a population.  We should sooner try to cool down the ocean by throwing in ice cubes.  This is the hard truth that every victorious revolutionary, political reformer, or activist soon discovers.

The most obvious way we might control the expression of a population is not to change it, but to distort its expression.  To accomplish this, we decide who to enfranchise the most to bring about the best results a people is capable of supplying.  In the process of politics then, we make sure those most inimical to an effective state have no vote at all, those of middling character get one vote, and the best of the race, a single vote that outweighs many lesser votes.
This after all, is the proposition made by a classical republic.  In the Roman Republic, the groups of people voted in “tribes” not at all equal in representation.  Plebeians despite their greater number were outweighed by the clout of the patrician classes in a vote.
In the early American republic, only those who owned sufficient property, giving them a real stake in the system of governance, were allowed to cast votes concerning the government.
Only by the 1820s was America well along the path to its transformation into a popular democracy.
However, no truly pure democracy has ever existed.
In Ancient Athens only an elite class granted the title of ‘citizen’ had the vote.
In America, several methods of strategic distortion of the popular will persist to this day.  The bicameral system that distorts the clout of representatives numbered according to population by the addition of senators who are equal in number and power, even if they are sent to the capital from sparsely populated mountains, desert, or tundra.  And of course, the electoral college that simplifies the popular vote into a winner-takes-all system.  Not to mention a great many who are only appointed by elected officials, elected by proxy, such as the entire judicial branch.
Even the American popular democracy is imbued with an inherent distrust of the unalloyed popular will built into it by its founders and reinforced by three centuries of their successors.
So the question is not whether to distort the popular will, but how it should best be done.

But…I began this entry commenting that governments alone cannot achieve the greater purpose.

Our first step is to observe that government is just one sort of democracy decided by the people in aggregate.  We can think of several great democracies, of which government is by far the least significant.

Political democracy – Every vote elects a representative.

Economic democracy – Every purchase is a vote that elects a product.

Social democracy – Every value someone holds is a vote that elects a society.

Biological democracy – Every child conceived is a vote that elects a people.

I will hope to discuss each in turn.

The Masses Crave Discipline

I was briefly doing some reading on dog training once because I was visiting my parents and they had a young puppy full of energy with little discipline.  It was difficult to even take the young animal for a walk because he would zip every which way with no sense of direction and constantly fight against the tugging of the leash.
I soon discovered the ideas of a guy called Cesar Milan on the web, a fellow who I understand had a TV show.
It soon struck me that his kind of ideas didn’t just seem dog-like to me.  I’d never found a finer manual in the art of herding people.

We have only to see Britain’s adulation for its royal family or Americans’ worship of the Kennedys to understand that the typical human psychologically requires a master as surely as any dog.  People feel happy and safe when there is a dominating presence at the head of their tribe.  They become miserable and anxious in the absence of discipline and leadership.

One has only to observe groups of kids.  A classroom with a strong and competent teacher is well behaved and happy.  A class with a weak teacher is obnoxious and miserable.
One would think that the kids with greater freedom would be happier, but the opposite is true.
Over the years I’ve had stints as a substitute teacher and an English teacher.  I’ve worked in tourist venues where groups of kids pass through constantly.  Everywhere I’ve gone, the kids without leadership have bratty sneers on their faces and while they may smile, it’s always a snide expression of mockery and contempt.  They’re unhappy, insecure, and bored.
Investigating dog psychology on the internet, I read how canine misbehavior is an attempt to get attention and test the leadership of the master.  The dog is begging to be shown rules and leadership just as it begs for food.  After all, social creatures require rules and structure as they do food or water.
It struck me that all those kids are exactly the same way.  Their misbehavior when not disciplined is just an escalating plea for leadership.  They immediately become happy and compliant again when their misbehavior is punished and they are decisively cast down into their proper place.

Dogs, according to the likes of Cesar Milan, experience a great deal of stress when despite their pleas, no leadership is forthcoming.  The dog starts to see itself as the incipient alpha bearing full responsibility for the wellbeing of the pack.  This crushing stress, combined with perceiving the need to assert itself as leader, mere misbehavior can escalate into outright aggression.  This is the point where the master loses control of the situation irrevocably.

Here,  I reflected, rulers of people do not fall from internal disputes as long as they show strength and leadership.  However, the moment a ruler makes concessions, the end is near.  We can reflect on Gorbachev and the end of the Soviet Union, or Mubarak in Egypt.  We can compare the outcome of President Jackson’s quick and decisive suppression of secession movements in South Carolina, with the concessions and indecisiveness of Buchanan.
It is an eternal law of dealing with the masses: the strongman is rewarded with obedience, the kind man with rebellion and overthrow.

American foreign policy would have been greatly improved had its formulators understood the human craving for discipline.  They would have immediately had an astute and accurate understanding of what an Iraq without Saddam would be like.  Now, faced with all the problems that the strongman kept in check, they’re forced to unhappily enter an alliance with the Iranians just to feebly attempt to restore what they already had—and willfully undid—because they chose to make real world policy while living in a fantasy land.

If anything, the colonialists of the British Empire had no illusions about the subservient and base nature of humanity.  With incomparably less wealth, technology, and personnel they managed to govern most of the planet.  A few jungle and desert zones capable of resisting the entire might of the United States caused no unusual problems for the British whose only advantage over the American superpower was a shrewd understanding of people.

Enlightenment thought teaches us humans are perfect rational agents, who need only be set free.  But even the most casual glance at the psychology of real, ordinary people quickly informs us:  One of the cruelest things that can be done to a man is to set him free.  At heart, man wants to be ruled.

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