FORWARD BASE B

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The Trump Era And Iran

Iran hasn’t been a major expansionist power since the 17th century.  The modern state of Iran is a pale shadow compared to any of the empires across milennia based in the Persian homeland.
There frankly isn’t much reason for the United States to make Iran a top foreign policy priority.  They may eventually get nukes but Pakistan, a state infinitely worse than Iran already has nukes and the world hasn’t ended yet.

Aside from influence over Middle East client states, the US and Iran have no real conflicts of interest.  Rivalry with Iran was largely manufactured by US meddling in Iranian affairs.  For some bizarre reason the US establishment just can’t get over the fact that their Shah didn’t work out 40 years ago and that they need to move on.  It’s not unlike their inability to adjust to the fact that the USSR no longer exists.

President Trump, as of this writing, has just fired his national security advisor, Michael Flynn.  There are many flimsy-sounding official reasons for the dismissal but I suspect it is not without coincidence it comes shortly after Flynn put Iran “on notice” after the test launch of a missile.

Iran responded by launching more missiles and the US was again left looking foolish and impotent.
It looks like Trump took Flynn’s advice regarding Iran, but perhaps had his reservations because he made Flynn publicly own the announcement rather than doing it himself and taking the credit.

When Flynn’s sabre-rattling backfired, Trump may have decided to pull the plug even though he must understand that the optics are damaging to his administration.

 He acted similarly many times firing staff during his campaign with everyone saying he was finished and his organization falling apart.  These kinds of plays shouldn’t surprise us by now.

The open belligerence expressed by Flynn, when backed by no credible threat, makes no sense and makes the situation worse.  We need only reflect on how W Bush’s ‘Axis of Evil’ needlessly inflamed and encouraged his designated enemies.

Why on earth would anyone want to keep their enemies “on notice?”  Why not keep them guessing about their relationship with the US and always leave room for negotiation?  I remember how neocons and cuckservatives revolted when Obama merely said he would be willing to “talk to Iran.”  What kind of national leaders could express outrage at conducting diplomacy, a basic function of state?  This is the sort of childish idiocy an adult like Trump has to tear out by the roots.

Iran is a state with paranoid tendencies as one would expect of a land that has been under the influence of foreign powers for the last 200 years and invaded from every direction by every group for thousands of years.  Their nation lies at a natural geo-political crossroads so their government naturally has a hardliner temperament somewhat similar to that of Russia.  The key distinction that the US misunderstands is their outlook is primarily defensive in nature.
Beyond a buffer client zone in the Shia regions of Iraq along with its Shia holy cities, Iran really doesn’t seem to aspire to that much at the moment.  They have proxies all over the Middle East, but more to destabilize Sunni powers they fear than anything else.

I actually think Obama had the right general policy direction even if he was forced to by circumstance.  When his pet Syrian revolutionaries blew up into ISIS he went crawling on his knees to Tehran begging for them keep an independent Iraq in existence on paper at least.  The price was that he had to make humiliating concessions.

I think he still could have done a better job of playing the situation, though, considering he was paying the Iranians to do what they desperately wanted to do anyway.  I have to give him credit though for at least opening a dialogue when no one else in the establishment would.

The Western powers can’t seem to wrap their heads around the fact that Iran as the central power of Shi’ite Islam with its own great share of the petroleum market is the natural enemy of Sunni powers.  The potential for playing them off against each other should be obvious.

The US had its chance to take the Sunni side of that divide when they backed Saddam Hussein as a relatively secular Arab Nationalist leader of Iraq.  Had diplomacy been conducted with a more realpolitik understanding back then, perhaps Iraq would have been allowed to absorb Kuwait as an ally’s reward after their hard-fought war with Iran.
Perhaps that extra infusion of oil money would have enabled America’s then-ally to go back and pose a greater threat.

But that’s alternate history and now it actually makes more sense to play Iran against the Sunni Middle East and thereby have some leverage over them from behind the scenes.  At the very least, it makes sense to defuse decades of pointless hostility with Iran.  
If the US had wanted to pursue that route, it already could have with a strong ally before it invaded that ally twice, deposed its ruler, and left behind a yawning power vacuum that has caused endless headaches ever since.

At present, Iran aligns with Russia to the frustration of the establishment, but this connection need not exist.  Historically, Russian and Persian powers have been bitter enemies that have fought many wars.  Their co-operation is far from inevitable.  Theirs is an alliance made necessary by American intransigence.  As the US drove the Iranians into the arms of the Soviet Union, it now pushes them towards Russia.  If it were to become a foreign policy goal to divide them, it ought not to be that difficult.  Just encourage both to have more ambitions in the Caucasus.

For the time being, Iranian-Russian cooperation has been beneficial in keeping the Middle East from descending into complete chaos while for once the US can watch from afar as someone else puts in all the blood and sweat.

US establishment rhetoric toward Iran has frustrated me for years.  Their stupid heavy-handedness in all things has destroyed their credibility until even a non-politician TV billionaire can step in and push them aside.  Some inflammatory statements about Crimea aside, I am hoping Trump has the sense not to get drawn into the cult of unilateral, irrational belligerence.

Update 2/17/17: Was the Flynn firing also a ploy to draw out and expose enemies within the state and intelligence agencies?  Very intrigued to see what happens next.  Like in the election, Trump keeps people guessing, as he should.

8 responses to “The Trump Era And Iran

  1. UlricKerensky February 17, 2017 at 2:37 am

    Kuwait was in the UK sphere of influence, Thatcher made HW go after Iraq.

    • Giovanni Dannato February 17, 2017 at 5:15 am

      Made him? One’s allies have too much say when they can order you to war against your own interests, especially if they are the weaker party. To be fair, I guess that didn’t stop Austria-Hungary dragging Germany into a Great War.

      The port of Kuwait was one of the few strategically important areas before the discovery of oil, so the British had a base there. In fact that’s where the founder of the Saud dynasty fled for awhile when he was out of favor in Riyadh vs. the Rashidis.

      Anyway, I would think that there would have to be more to the story than Victorian-Edwardian British foreign policy for such a heavy-handed reaction. The US established itself conclusively as the one legitimate superpower with the Suez Canal Crisis.
      I figured HW was worried about any one power controlling too much of the oil reserves.
      The Sykes-Picot map was drawn as it was for a reason.

  2. Ex-Ranza February 17, 2017 at 4:59 am

    “When Flynn’s sabre-rattling backfired, Trump may have decided to pull the plug even though he must understand that the optics are damaging to his administration.”

    What is meant here by optics?

  3. Sam J. February 19, 2017 at 8:33 pm

    “…I actually think Obama had the right general policy direction even if he was forced to by circumstance…”

    You’re exactly correct and it’s the only thing I liked about Obama is no matter how much caterwauling from the Jews we didn’t attack Iran.

    “…Update 2/17/17: Was the Flynn firing also a ploy to draw out and expose enemies within the state and intelligence agencies? Very intrigued to see what happens next. Like in the election, Trump keeps people guessing, as he should…”

    This is just complete supposition. I of course do the exact same thing all the time but worse. The reason is with the all the lies we can never see the truth directly. We’re only allowed to see the shadows cast on the wall. Is it fingers or is it a rabbit?

    “…open belligerence expressed by Flynn, when backed by no credible threat, makes no sense and makes the situation worse…”

    Exactly. Completely ridiculous.

    Here’s some shadows. Flynn and his son both alluded to Pizzagate(true). Shortly after his resignation Philippe Reines, a former aide to Ms Clinton tweeted about it.

    “Dear Mike Flynn & Mike Flynn Jr. What goes around COMETS around,” (True)

    Comet Pizza is the name of the pizza place that is at the center of pizzagate.(true).

    A former CIA guy, Robert David Steele, says pizzagate is just a local manifestation of of a worldwide Pedogate.(True)

    Is what he says true? Some of it definitely. There’s been numerous cases that 100% were covered up. The evidence was there. No doubt at all. Some are saying that Flynn had a list of abusers and one of Pence’s best friends was on the list. Pence wanted him gone for that.(rumor)

    Hundreds of low level pedos and child trafficers are being rounded up right now. (true).

    Supposition is that they are being leaned on to go up the chain and provide collaborating evidence. Various estimates are that 1/3 of Congress is caught up in this pedo scheme. It’s been said that 50% of CIA agents are Jews.(rumor)

    So what’s going on? My take on this is very simple. The Jews have run the media, CIA and Congress for decades. They got greedy and sloppy, drug running, child trafficking, 9-11, mass wars for Israel, pushing towards situations where a nuclear exchange with Russia is a possibility, selling off US military tech secrets and who knows what else. The Jews have been completely destroying the country. Exactly like Germany after WWI. They aren’t the only intelligence agency though. The DIA has been watching. The CIA has hired and appointed agents. The DIA has heartland Whites running it as you have to join the military and go up the chain to get in. Too much trouble for the Jews. The DIA hasn’t had the political power to do anything about it because of the press and Congress angle. The Whites are closing in on the Jews and they know it. Remember it’s only been a little over a month since Trump got in.

    I’m not sure why they haven’t pounced on them yet. Could be that they don’t want to destroy all faith in the government (bad thing I think) or it may be that they’re really setting them up where there’s no chance of escape.

    If Trump doesn’t totally clean these pedo blackmailers out then the country is doomed. Myself I can see no way this country will survive unless we deport the Jews in mass and refuse to let them have any say in our country at all. This seems to be the pattern of countries infested with the Jews for the last 4000 years or so. Those that did so were vastly successful.

    The future of our country is right now. Very similar to the Revolutionary War or the Civil War. I think some of the guys Trump has on board believe this too. Michael Anton(Publius Decius Mus, look up Publius Decius Mus and see what the Roman did) wrote,”The Flight 93 Election”.

    http://www.claremont.org/crb/basicpage/the-flight-93-election/

    (I’m sure you’ve read this but I linked it for completion)

    Bannon is bleating about “The Fourth Turning”, an apocalyptic cyclist theory history warning book, (great book).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss-Howe_generational_theory

    Bannons boss Breitbart was murdered when he threatened Podesta with pedo exposure.((fact) that Breitbart threatened Podesta, (rumor) that he was murdered but with medical evidence backing that he was murdered) He knows the stakes.

    https://voat.co/v/pizzagate/1657892

    It will all be decided in Trumps administration. Let’s hope he doesn’t fuck it up.

    And to add to the panic along with the societal “4th Turning” look at the Chartist financial history. We may be very soon going over the falls. I admit this really, really scares me. Really bad.

    http://urbansurvival.com/i-told-you-this-would-happen/

    • Giovanni Dannato February 23, 2017 at 2:42 am

      I think I’ve given up for now trying to figure out exactly what was going on with Flynn. Trump has shown he’s very clever and like Sun Tzu, always makes deception part of his battle plan.
      We can look at the new guy, McMaster, a tank general from the 1st Iraq war. He seems to think more for himself than your average top brass, but that’s a very relative metric. It was also offputting that the 1st pick for a new National Security Advisor worked for Lockheed Martin. Last thing we need is more Military Industrial Complex control of foreign policy. After the W Bush administration turned that dial up to 11, it’s political suicide to venture there again, as it should be.

      You know my stance with conspiracy theories. Until there’s something more concrete, I assume the pizzagate thing is likely just rumors. It would be just a little too convenient to be true.

      You know my stance with Jews, but I do accept that it may prove necessary to keep them out of government and finance. It may be politically necessary for their own good if disconcertingly many of them continue to conspicuously support the crumbling establishment.

  4. Sam J. February 20, 2017 at 7:23 am

    This stuff is everywhere. Cases dropped with confessions even.

    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2017/02/prime-pedophile.html

    I wonder why Trump dropped Flynn??? It’s mysterious. Is it some kind of long range set up? Was Pence protecting someone that Flynn was after and Trump didn’t know? The murk is so deep you need hip waders. There’s a real serious war going on. If Trump doesn’t get control of the fake votes then I bet he will be impeached by stolen votes in the cities. He’s going to have to go after these people. This is the same bunch that killed as many as 60 million Russians.

    http://voxday.blogspot.com/2017/02/why-did-fbi-investigate.html

    • Sam J. February 20, 2017 at 4:47 pm

      After reading some material elsewhere maybe the reason Flynn was booted was he didn’t keep his mouth shut. He tweeted about pizzagate. Right now the government is rounding up hundreds of pedos and child traffickers. Maybe he was not supposed to talk about this and the reason they let him go was this. Since they didn’t want to bring this to anyone’s attention they gave a nonsensical reason for his firing. The Achilles heel for the deep State is child trafficking, 9-11(building #7 specifically), drug running and money laundering. The people keeping them safe and cut-outs stopping investigation of them have disappeared. Sessions, a former prosecutor, seems to be going after them. The deep States get out of jail free cards seem to have been revoked. As long as Trump can stay in office he holds the cards.

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