FORWARD BASE B

"Pay my troops no mind; they're just on a fact-finding mission."

Thoughts On the Ukraine Crisis

I honestly don’t see the need for war.
Ukraine has been paralyzed by conflict between ethnic Ukrainians and Russians since the collapse of the USSR.
I think the government in Kiev is actually better off without them.
My guess for now is parts of Eastern Ukraine, especially Crimea, could end up going back to Russia.
The Russians get to be part of impoverished Russia.
The western part is finally freed to become part of Europe and to join the rich EU.
Russia gains a bit more territory but at the cost of becoming even more diplomatically and economically isolated.  Even more relegated to being a mere commodity provider for rich countries.
It’s not a good move for Russia.
They may actually be doing the Ukrainians a huge favor.
Perhaps the Russian leadership are savvy enough to understand that pressing this issue won’t help them beyond a certain point and are again posturing in an attempt to boost public opinion at home and boost their appearance of prestige abroad.
Yanukovych was Putin’s man in Kiev.  He was an ethnic Russian from the East who wasn’t even fully fluent in Ukrainian, a shortcoming which made him the George W. Bush of Ukraine, sticking his foot in his mouth at every opportunity.
Irrepressible protests arose after he tried to distance Ukraine from the EU in November and there was a revolution that completely ousted him from power.
I find it odd that present news reports barely even mention the Ukrainian revolution that drove Putin to invade Ukraine.
With events out of context, few seem to understand that Putin is the desperate man, trying to salvage what he can from a wreck beyond all repair.
Ukraine is lost to him forever now and it’s only a matter of time now until it becomes part of the EU and NATO.
Putin will seize what scraps he can but even those will come at a precipitous price.  He spent the last 20 years trying to keep the former Soviet Republics in his orbit, so it’s understandable he’s not acting completely rationally.
I’ve looked at an ethnic map of the Ukraine and have understood that ethnic Russians are barely 1/5 of Ukraine’s population. They’re concentrated in the East.  Crimea is the only part of the entire country that’s majority ethnic Russian.  That may well be the only part that goes back to Russia.
I can see people making comparisons to Sudetenland concessions, but I find them ridiculous.  Nazi Germany was an economic powerhouse while Putin’s Russia is a sick man of Europe.
In time, even Russia will be pulled into the economic vortex that is Europe; even their political power plays will amount to nothing, like one tiny person trying to swim against the current of a river.

 

Percent Ethnic Russians in Ukraine Provinces

2 responses to “Thoughts On the Ukraine Crisis

  1. Sam March 11, 2014 at 5:20 am

    The problem as I see it is we have no interest or business helping foment the overthrow of the Ukrainian President. No matter if he was bad or not.

  2. Eric Patton April 4, 2014 at 2:08 pm

    Russia is very concerned with geopolitics, the only reason they gave Ukraine Crimea in 1954 was because Ukraine was de facto Russian at the time. The warm water port is too valuable to simply give up. Russia wants to keep the borderland under it’s control as a buffer zone, it’s a strategy that has worked well against both Hitler and Napoleon – freeze them out through layers of defense. Russia can’t see the world solely through an economic lens, military power is still paramount to them.

    Russia still has a powerful military that can threaten but not overwhelm a united Europe:
    http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=Russia

    America is more isolationist than it was a decade ago, we’re more concerned with domestic issues and the only people advocating for foreign involvement are doing so on the questionable basis of humanitarian warfare. We have temporarily forgotten why it is good to be the sole superpower in the world. This gap gives Russia the ability to influence the divided EU and retake some old buffer zones while it rebuilds and modernizes it’s military power. Russia operates with such a small margin for error that there is little hope for a comeback. The US on the other hand can goof off for several years while it’s allies beg for some cowboy hegemony that they whined about in the previous decade.

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