"Pay my troops no mind; they're just on a fact-finding mission."
Chillax, exponential doomsayers … a radioactive tanuki is not a resigned rodent
August 3, 2012
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Here is some raw data about the world of humans:
What kind of curve is that?
It’s not a perfect curve of any kind, so what ideal curves might it resemble?
Hmm, perhaps it is exponential.
Exponentials work great in purely abstract calculations, but they get into problems when applied to biological growth. For example, if you put an supply of sugar into a petri dish that allow yeast cells to grow exponentially, they will overshoot and die off.
Of course, financial systems are tied to biological entities, and finance often resembles biology, but not every bubble exactly resembles a yeast population bubble.
Dutch Tulip Mania and the South Sea Bubble were both bubbles, and they both popped, but their curves were a bit different. So one would expect the USA bubble to have various differences.
I don’t know what number I would use to build a curve for the USA bubble, and I don’t even know when it will pop. I like to guess at 2025, just because it’s a nice round number to balance out 1775, a key year for the American War for Independence. The chart below is presumably the wild-assed guess of some day-trader, but regardless of when the USA’s “Federal Reserve Note” loses reserve currency status, we can be sure that it will lose eventually.
The IMF famously predicted that the total economic size of China would exceed that of the USA by 2016.
Patriotic Yanks retorted that China’s per capita GDP would still be much lower.
Of course, even now in 2012, China’s growth is slowing down considerably.
I doubt very much that China will fulfill the lurid fantasies of the IMF, but I am confident that (in the next decade) China and other Asian nations will have more widely distributed prosperity than the USA.
So chillax, doomsayers. Asia’s future is as bright as a tanuki* with a little tanuki-sized wakazashi, striding boldly from the ever-expanding irradiated zone around Fukushima.
Asians will be advancing new answers for the world’s problems. Asians will start by improving life in Asia.
Oh, wait, you live in the USA? Fear not. The USA has the best propaganda establishment in the world. The USA can offer its citizens exponentially expanding self-esteem.
And that icon of USA culture, McDonalds’, is the official restaurant of the 2012 Olympics!
Now, any Yank, obese or otherwise, is not likely to be as cool as a radioactive tanuki. We have to accept this reality before we can move on with our lives. The trick is to avoid being a resigned rodent.
There is certainly a vast network of entrenched interests that push Yanks to be Resigned Rodents.
And there are certainly many guns aimed at the common Yanks:
If I may offer a word of advice to aspiring USA civil liberties activists – Facebook is perhaps not the most secure online location! Facebook might be a good broadcasting point, but you must assume that whatever you say on Facebook is going to be carbon-copied to those same sinister guys who kept Patrick McGoohan confined to the Village. The big white beach-ball things are NOT your friends.
But, on the Internet at least, some Americans expressing a certain dissatisfaction the the Powers That Be.
* I don’t actually know that this animal is a tanuki. It could be an animal of some other species.